Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Natural Gas, USD, MillerKnoll, Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdi and more

• Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025
• Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts
• Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.

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• Insiders are selling more than buying, especially in the technology sector
• Spin-offs like Western Digital and Lionsgate Studios are of interest to insiders
• Public Brook is a hotel company where insiders are buying stock and preferred shares, signaling potential value unlocking opportunities. Insiders are expected to start returning capital to shareholders, but the question remains if they will follow through.

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• Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
• Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
• The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

• While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
• The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
• FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

• The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.
• For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.

• Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
• Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
• Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

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• MLKN posted 2QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.55 on better-than- expected revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate), with Americas Contract and Global Retail both showing strength despite industry headwinds, while the normally ‘lumpier’ International Contract was affected by uneven demand across regions.
• We reviewed the quarterly results in our summary note.
• In the critical Americas Contract segment, leading indicators continue to suggest an improving demand picture.

• Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
• The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
• Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & is set to begin its 2nd in 1Q25.