Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, USD, McGraw Hill, Copper, Kaia, Longeveron , Earth Science Tech, Build A Bear Workshop and more

• Global upstream oil and gas development spending is expected to decline by about 1.1% to $543 billion, with reductions in all regions except the Middle East
• Major Chinese National Oil companies, US E&P operators, and Russian companies like Gazprom are all cutting their capital spending in response to lower oil prices and increased costs due to tariffs
• Despite strategic shifts towards low carbon projects, there is a significant reduction in investment in these areas, with upstream investment not seeing any benefits

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• Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants only
• European countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major players
• Australian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the future

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• McGraw Hill is backed by Platinum Equity and is looking to potentially debut in July. 
• For the fiscal years ended March 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, they generated revenue of $2,101.3 million $1,960.5 million and $1,947.8 million, respectively.
• The education sector in which this company operates in is one that has “mixed feelings” amongst IPO investors.

• COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. 
• We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.
• Follow our prior insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term 

• U.S. Copper Market Gap: 1.3 Mt refined copper supply gap due to limited 0.4 Mt refining capacity against 1.7 Mt demand, despite 1.1 Mt mined ore.
• Impact on Market and Users: 50% tariff may raise prices 15–25%, adding $200–400/vehicle and 3–5% construction costs, while boosting refining investment.
• Way Forward: Expand refining capacity, streamline permitting, and ensure policy stability to process exported ore and cut import reliance by 2030.

• In August 2024, Klaytn (backed by South Korea’s Kakao) and Finschia (developed by Japan’s LINE Tech Plus) merged to form the Kaia chain, a Layer 1 blockchain aimed at becoming Asia’s leading Web3 ecosystem.
• LINE, the leading messaging app in Japan, Thailand, and Taiwan, boasts approximately 200 million high-value monthly active users, with over 80% penetration in key markets, and is partnering with Kaia to deliver a rich Web3 experience on its platform.
• The key initiative of the Kaia-LINE NEXT partnership to onboard users from Web2 to Web3 is the Mini Dapp ecosystem, which mirrors the Telegram-TON partnership’s Game-Token-DeFi strategy, with the Kaia foundation driving developer engagement.

• Longeveron is focusing on using its primary treatment, Lomecel-B, to fight a rare pediatric heart birth defect that devastates families but continues to receive good FDA news regarding its treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease.
• The company announced that its primary drug, laromestrocel, has been approved for a Phase 2 trial for the treatment of Pediatric Dilated Cardiomyopathy.
• This expands the potential market for treatment and provides hope for thousands of patients.

• Earth Science Tech, Inc. (ETST) is a strategic holding company, with wholly-owned subsidiaries operating in the compounding pharmaceutical (RxCompoundStore.com, MisterMeds.com), telehealth (Peaks Curative, Las Villas Health Care, DOConsultations.com), real estate (Avenvi), and consumer products (Magnefuse) sectors.
• Senior executives remain focused on managing and optimizing company operations, as well as acquiring complementary assets.
• The firm was incorporated in 2010, with headquarters in Miami, Florida.

• US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2 2025.
• US base oils supply lags demand in April 2025 for third month, cutting stocks to eight-month low.
• Persistent supply-shortfall triggers fastest drop in stocks over three-month period since September 2020, when US was in midst of Covid-related supply disruptions.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $65 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear as we look at key trends for 2HFY25 and beyond.
• We believe the company remains ideally positioned, with multiple drivers in store, internationally and third party operations to register top and bottom line upside for 2H and beyond, and to continue to capture further margin expansion.
• Further, we believe there remains online opportunities to continue to expand the overall Build-A-Bear universe.