Daily Brief United States: Destiny Tech100, Block , USD, Crude Oil, Pbf Energy Inc Class A, Cocoa Futures, Angiodynamics Inc, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp and more

• Market Euphoria and Investment Challenges: Trump’s re-election has fueled excitement in the stock market, especially for Elon Musk-linked companies, but investing in SpaceX remains difficult due to its private status.  
• Proxy Stocks: Investors can access SpaceX indirectly through proxy stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB) or funds such as Destiny Tech100 Inc. (DXYZ) and the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX). 
• Valuation Concerns on DXYZ: Despite DXYZ’s significant outperformance compared to other proxies, its rapidly expanded market cap/fair value multiple raises concerns about overvaluation and stock price sustainability.

• Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
• Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
• Company’s dedication to Bitcoin and its ecosystems driving future shareholder returns, despite being misunderstood due to its history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.
• The Fed’s balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.
• Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.

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• China implementing stimulus measures to boost growth
• Cold weather leading to increased demand for heating fuel oil
• Global oil inventories at record lows, with improving sentiment on China leading to potential increase in domestic demand.

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• Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
• Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
• Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

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• PBF Energy’s latest earnings present a nuanced picture of the company’s current status and future outlook.
• The company reported an adjusted net loss of $1.50 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $60.1 million for the third quarter of 2024.
• This performance reflects a challenging period characterized by weaker market conditions, particularly in terms of refinery margins and crude differentials.

• The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the first time in six weeks, as it fell by 5 to 584 for the week ending 10/Jan.
• For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.56m bpd from 13.57m bpd the week prior.
• U.S. oil rig count fell by 2 to 482 while gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Producers cut three rigs in Texas and one each from Utah and Colorado.

• Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze? During last week, cocoa prices surged again after Hershey’s reportedly asked the US commodity regulator for permission to buy a huge amount (more than currently allowed) of cocoa through the New York exchange in the midst of high prices and an ongoing cocoa deficit in the market.
• Bloomberg reported that the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups wants to take a position that will allow it to purchase more than 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on ICE Futures US, citing people familiar with the matter.
• This is an order that equates to about 5,000 20-foot containers. 

• I am taking several off the list, first one being Angiodynamics (ANGO) written up here .
• It jumped in the past week on a slightly improved forecast to a high of $13. I wrote it up at $6.9.
• I think fair value is around $12-15 or so, so no longer all that interesting.

• Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (Grocery Outlet) finds itself in a period of transition, with recent leadership changes and challenges impacting its performance.
• During the third quarter of fiscal 2024, the company reported net sales growth of 10.4% to $1.11 billion, driven by a mix of new store openings and a modest 1.2% increase in comparable store sales.
• However, the comparable store sales growth was tempered by execution challenges related to recent system transitions, highlighting an operational hurdle that the company aims to overcome.