In today’s briefing:
- Intel Snags $2 Billion From SoftBank. What Now?
- Intel (INTC.US): SoftBank Buys $2bn of Intel Stock at $23; U.S. Government Considers Investment.
- CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk
- Marriott International: A New Game-Changing Media Network to Tap Billions in Ad Revenue & Other Key Developments!
- SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem
- Arista Networks Leverages Velo Power—Could SD-WAN Dominate Its Next Growth Wave?
- Amgen: New Breakthroughs in Obesity, Rare Diseases, & High-Impact Therapies; But Is It Enough?
- Staying Bullish Despite Near-Term Pullback Potential; Buy Pullbacks
- Q&A with Magnera IR
- With the timeline to launch a study in India similar to the one being conducted in Australia significantly longer than AEMD had initially anticipated
Intel Snags $2 Billion From SoftBank. What Now?
- Intel just announced that SoftBank has agreed to buy $2 billion worth of Intel stock, details here.
- The shares are likely newly issued, meaning dilution of existing shareholders. Markets didn’t care and shares rose >5% in after hours trading.
- $2 billion is a far cry from the $40 billion former CEO Craig Barrett thinks Intel needs. Could this be the first of similar deals with US semiconductor/technology companies?
Intel (INTC.US): SoftBank Buys $2bn of Intel Stock at $23; U.S. Government Considers Investment.
- Monetary support may temporarily ease Intel’s current financial difficulties, but the ultimate solution lies in securing technical support from manufacturing.
- We remain curious how the U.S. government will devise a solution for Intel if the company ultimately cannot provide the necessary support for U.S. Fabless players.
- We are bearish on Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current position and do not believe financial support alone can help the company overcome its challenges.
CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk
- Despite a 307% surge in revenue, CoreWeave’s extended six-year GPU depreciation schedule flatters its profitability while masking faster asset wear-down.
- Despite ballooning into a $30 bn market cap, CoreWeave is weighed down by debt and lease obligations; Q2 interest expense exceeded operating profit, with CRWV netting $290 m in losses.
- The Aug 15 IPO lock-up expiry triggered insider selling via $1 bn+ block trades, driving a 35% stock plunge and spiking short interest.
Marriott International: A New Game-Changing Media Network to Tap Billions in Ad Revenue & Other Key Developments!
- Marriott International, Inc. reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, revealing both positives and areas of concern.
- The company showed resilience amid global macroeconomic uncertainty by delivering strong performance metrics that surpassed previous earnings guidance.
- The company’s global RevPAR (revenue per available room) increased by 1.5%, with particular strength observed in regions like APAC (Asia-Pacific) and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), demonstrating a 9% and 7% rise, respectively.
SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem
- Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty.
- Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24 2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further 3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share
- AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027.
Arista Networks Leverages Velo Power—Could SD-WAN Dominate Its Next Growth Wave?
- Arista Networks presented a robust financial performance in its second quarter of fiscal year 2025, reflecting substantial growth and strong market positioning, albeit with some areas of challenge and scrutiny.
- The company reported a record revenue of $2.2 billion for the quarter, surpassing expectations by $100 million and marking a 30.4% increase year-over-year.
- This impressive performance was driven by robust demand across its product sectors, particularly within the AI, cloud, and enterprise domains.
Amgen: New Breakthroughs in Obesity, Rare Diseases, & High-Impact Therapies; But Is It Enough?
- The latest earnings call for Amgen Incorporated presented a mixed bag of outcomes and strategic updates, reflecting on both the company’s strengths and challenges.
- On the positive side, Amgen reported a notable 9% increase in quarterly revenues, driven primarily by a robust 13% rise in product volumes.
- This volume growth appeared broad-based, with 15 different products recording double-digit sales growth, suggesting a welldiversified product portfolio and effective market penetration, particularly in cardiovascular and rare diseases, inflammation, and oncology.
Staying Bullish Despite Near-Term Pullback Potential; Buy Pullbacks
- We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
- We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
- SPX is testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226, respectively. This makes us believe we could see some near-term downside; buy pullbacks.
Q&A with Magnera IR
- I expect relatively stable revenue in fiscal 2026 (flat to slightly down), barring a macro shock.
- However, with progress on synergies (65% of the $55MM net synergy target expected to be realized in fiscal 2026) and Project CORE (more on this below), I believe adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will grow.
- I continue to be impressed with the management team. Their focus is on generating cash, shaped by their experience running Berry under several different private equity sponsors (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Apollo).
With the timeline to launch a study in India similar to the one being conducted in Australia significantly longer than AEMD had initially anticipated
- With the timeline to launch a study in India similar to the one being conducted in Australia significantly longer than AEMD had initially anticipated, the company has decided not to move forward in India at this time.
- AEMD will continue to focus on the ongoing oncology study in Australia, where it benefits from attractive economic that are expected to help reduce costs, lower risk & accelerate time to market.
- When appropriate, the company continues pre-clinical research and analysis of the Hemopurifier in areas outside of oncology when expenses associated with these efforts are de minimis.
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