Daily Brief United States: Meta, Figma, Ambiq Micro, Cocoa Futures, McGraw Hill, Accelerant Holdings, Norfolk Southern, NIQ Global Intelligence and more

• In the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence, Meta has doubled down on voice-driven innovation by snapping up PlayAI, a nimble startup renowned for its natural-sounding speech synthesis and user-friendly voice-creation platform.
• With more than 3.4 billion daily users across its apps and nearly one billion monthly users of its Meta AI service, the company is eager to integrate PlayAI’s specialized talent directly into Meta Superintelligence Labs.
• This move arrives just after Meta rolled out Llama 4 models and launched its stand-alone Meta AI app, signaling an all-in push toward multimodal, conversational AI.

• Figma is offering 36.9mm shares at $25.00-$28.00 equating to a market cap of $12.2bn-$13.65b and is scheduled to debut on July 31st.
• They estimate their total revenue to increase by 39% to 41% for the three months ended June 30, 2025 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024.
• This company is highly regarded in the software sector and we believe that there will be ample interest in this IPO.

• Ambiq Micro is offering 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00 equating to a market cap of $375m-$426m and is scheduled to debut on July 30th.
• The company is currently undergoing a “shift” from a customer base that relies heavily on mainland China to other parts of the world.
• The updated prospectus further outlines the ownership percentages and lists Kleiner Perkins and EDB Investments Ptd Ltd as owners of 14.8% and 6.0% prior to this offering.

• Figma (FIG US) targets a valuation of $13.7bn, aiming to raise $1.2bn given it reaches the top of its pricing range.
• Inclusion in US and Global indices is delayed until 2026 due to failing free float and public voting rights eligibility before lock-up expiries.
• Figma (FIG US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the September 2025 review.

• Concerns for sugar cane yields and sugar content in major sugar market exporter
• China’s soybean import demand reached record seasonal high, following Brazilian crop
• Short covering seen in grain complex, USDA trimmed US corn availability expectations, driving force behind corn price recovery; tariff impacts on Brazilian products into US market, potential changes in sweetener mix for Coca Cola

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• McGraw Hill (MH US) , is  offering 24.39mm shares at $19.00-$22.00 equating to a market cap of $3.6b-$4.2b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
• We were pleasantly “surprised” to hear that the deal’s channel checks came in strong. According to guidance, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued long-only conversions.
• Bringing the IPO at a valuation that is a down-round is a “positive”, however the sector in which this company operates in “may” prove to be a difficult sell.

• According to our sources, the deal is double-digits oversubscribed with “meaningful mutual fund conversions”.
• Exchange written premiums were $3.1b in 2024 and the company is projecting premiums of $2.0b-$2.1b in the 1H 2025 alone.
• From a valuation standpoint, the company is targeting a near 20x multiple of EV-to-Ebitda and mid-teens multiple based on 2026 Ebitda which is considered aggressive.

• Norfolk Southern Corp. has emerged as a potential acquisition target for Union Pacific Corp., with early-stage discussions underway that could reshape the North American rail landscape.
• If the deal materializes, it would combine the largest and fifth-largest railroads by revenue, creating a network valued at nearly $200 billion and extending from coast to coast — an unprecedented footprint in U.S. rail history.
• Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena has publicly discussed the strategic merits of a transcontinental railroad, and Norfolk Southern CFO Jason Zampi has echoed support for such a structure, citing potential benefits.

• Figma Inc., a fast-growing design software maker with strong VC backing, is expected to price the offering this week.
• The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $25.00 to $28.00, implying a market cap of roughly $13B at the midpoint.
• I have a positive view of upcoming Figma IPO and expect a strong first trading-day performance. The stock will begin trading on the NYSE on July 28, 2025.

• The company that describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company positioned at the nexus of brands, retailers and consumers is to debut on Wednesday, July 23rd.
• According to guidance, that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with long-only, 1-on-1 conversions including anchor indications.
• The company showed solid growth in 2024 of nearly 19% and followed that up with solid flash numbers of +7.5% growth in Q2.