Daily Brief United States: Natural Gas, Infinity Natural Resources, Maze Therapeutics, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings, Metsera, Halliburton Co, Chevron Corp, Global Indemnity Group LLC, Alarm.Com Holdings and more

• Trump signed emergency declarations to address energy and minerals inadequacy in the US
• Plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, pressure OPEC to lower prices
• Unclear what powers these declarations unlock, potential impact on energy and metal projects

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• While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
• Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut. 
• Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds. 

• The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors. 
• According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
• Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.

• SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
• The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
• I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.

• The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
• According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
• The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.

• Halliburton’s Q4 revenue fell by 2.3% YoY and missed estimates by 0.4% due to weakness in North America. However, its EPS beat estimates by 0.7%.
• Completion & Production revenue fell 4.2% YoY due to reduced activity in North and Latin America. Drilling & Evaluation revenue grew 0.4% YoY driven by growth in the Middle East.
• In Q4, Halliburton repurchased USD 309 million in stock and generated USD 1.1 billion in free cash flow. Full-year repurchases totalled USD 1.6 billion.

• Chevron to report its Q4 earnings on 31/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.
• As of 29/Jan, Chevron’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.12%, with an IV rank of 43.95% and an IV percentile of 75%.
• Chevron’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 162.5, 165, and 167.5, while puts are prominent at strikes of 150, 152.5, and 155.

• Chevron’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Similarly, its 2024 annual revenue and EPS are anticipated to fall by 2.5% and 22.5%.
• Chevron expects restructuring and other charges to impact its Q4 2024 earnings by USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.
• Chevron set its 2025 organic capex at USD 14.5–15.5 billion and affiliate capex at USD 1.7–2.0 billion, marking a USD 2 billion decline from the previous year.

• Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
• GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
• The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

• Alarm.com has high dollar retention rates and is focused on diversifying revenue through growth initiatives, accounting for 30% of revenue and growing over 20% annually
• The company has potential for improvement in EBITDA margins and could be a target for activists or a PE buyout due to its strong financial position
• Founded in 2000 and incubated within MicroStrategy, Alarm.com has a history of innovation in the security products industry and is led by CEO Stephen Trundle

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.