In today’s briefing:
- Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete
- Venture Global (VG US): Excluded from Global & US Indices Despite $50B Market Cap
- Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue
- NVIDIA & The DeepSeek Effect: A Historic $600B Crash But Is This Here To Stay?
- Why Tripadvisor Is A Magnet For Takeover Interest: Insights On Its Unmatched Appeal!
- [Pre Earnings Options Flash] Exxon’s OI PCR Indicates Neutral Sentiment Ahead of Earnings
- Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX): Bullish IPO Roadshow Moves Underwriters to Amend Offering Size and Range
- GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance
- S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/04] Henry Hub Rose Due to Robust LNG Exports and Cold Weather
Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete
- Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
- As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
Venture Global (VG US): Excluded from Global & US Indices Despite $50B Market Cap
- Venture Global (VG US) is forecasted to fail fast-entry to S&P TMI due to insufficient fcap but is expected to be added at the March 2025 review.
- Venture Global (VG US) is expected to be excluded from Global & US indices due to low fcap and public voting rights mainly caused by the company’s unlisted shares.
- The probability of inclusion in Global & US indices increases exponentially with the selling of Class B shares by Venture Global Partners.
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue
- The company priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
- A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
- The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.
NVIDIA & The DeepSeek Effect: A Historic $600B Crash But Is This Here To Stay?
- NVIDIA, the global leader in AI hardware, has recently faced unprecedented turbulence in the market, shedding nearly $600 billion in market capitalization in a single day—an event that has sent shockwaves through the tech and investment communities.
- The catalyst for this dramatic drop?
- DeepSeek, a relatively new Chinese AI startup that has stunned the industry by developing a highly efficient and cost-effective AI model, DeepSeek R1.
Why Tripadvisor Is A Magnet For Takeover Interest: Insights On Its Unmatched Appeal!
- Tripadvisor has been a frequent subject of acquisition speculation, with the latest developments adding fuel to the fire.
- Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings (OTCQB:LTRPA, LTRPB) recently disclosed a proposal from an undisclosed “Party 7” to acquire Tripadvisor and Liberty TripAdvisor.
- The bid, initially offered at $17.50 per share in October 2024, was later revised to $18-$19 per share in January 2025, representing a 14-21% premium over the current stock price.
[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Exxon’s OI PCR Indicates Neutral Sentiment Ahead of Earnings
- Exxon will be announcing its Q4 earnings on 31/Jan, with its EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For fiscal 2024, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.
- As of 28/Jan, Exxon’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.86%, with an IV rank of 40.38% and an IV percentile of 57%.
- Exxon’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 112, 114, and 115, while puts dominate at 102, 104, and 108.
Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX): Bullish IPO Roadshow Moves Underwriters to Amend Offering Size and Range
- The underwriters amended the terms of this offering with a S-1/A on Tuesday morning.
- With the updated terms, the company could raise as much as $170 million at the high-end of the new range.
- We have updated our first day forecast given the bullish momentum during the roadshow.
GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance
- I expect GRAIL shares will appreciate over time as investors gain greater conviction in one of the most meaningful opportunities in healthcare.
- A fast-growing maker of MCED screening tests reported ~46% sales growth of Galleri tests in 2024. Commercial Galleri sales surpassed 250K tests since launch.
- At ~0.5x EV/2025E revenues, GRAIL shares trade at a significant discount to Guardant Health and Tempus AI. GRAIL shares appreciated ˃100% from October 4, 2024.
S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness
- DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
- The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
- Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/04] Henry Hub Rose Due to Robust LNG Exports and Cold Weather
- For the week ending 24/Jan, U.S. natural gas prices gained 2% amid volatility driven by colder weather forecasts and increasing LNG exports.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.05 from 1.18 (17/Jan) the previous week as call volumes rose by 7.2% WoW, while put volumes declined by 4.3%.
- Henry Hub OI PCR inched up to 0.93 from 0.92 from last week. Call OI grew by 4.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 5.5%.
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