In today’s briefing:
- NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…
- Steel Resolve: Nippon’s Deal Gains Traction Amid Regulatory Reforging
- Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive
- AppLovin Breaks Out of Gaming—Here’s How Its Non-Gaming Ad Surge Is Supercharging Revenues!
- The AZEK Company: Will Its Recent Mergers & Acquisitions Help Enhance Market Reach & Customer Value?
- Uber Technologies: Adoption & Integration of Autonomous Vehicles In An Attempt To Build A Unique Competitive Edge In Mobility!
- President Trump “orders US Chip Software Suppliers to Stop Selling to China”
- All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets
- Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile
- Disney’s $875 Million Streaming Comeback and UAE Power Move Could Change Everything!
NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…
- Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan.
- He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
- NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.
Steel Resolve: Nippon’s Deal Gains Traction Amid Regulatory Reforging
- Nippon Steel proposes binding governance safeguards, including a U.S. CEO, majority-U.S. board, and a “golden share” for U.S. veto power on strategic decisions.
- USW union opposition remains vocal, but Trump’s political pivot reframes the deal as a domestic partnership, easing labor and nationalist concerns.
- Antitrust risk is low due to limited overlap; CFIUS clearance remains the key regulatory hurdle, with approval possible by late July or early August.
Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive
- Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus.
- The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen’s point: “it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed”. The Good Times Keep Rolling.
- This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.
AppLovin Breaks Out of Gaming—Here’s How Its Non-Gaming Ad Surge Is Supercharging Revenues!
- AppLovin, a leader in performance marketing, has recently announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting its robust growth trajectory despite external challenges.
- The company has navigated market volatility, such as short-seller scrutiny and broader economic conditions, by focusing on emerging opportunities in the advertising sector.
- This quarter is especially significant due to its strategic decision to divest its games business entirely, further sharpening its focus on advertising technology.
The AZEK Company: Will Its Recent Mergers & Acquisitions Help Enhance Market Reach & Customer Value?
- AZEK recently shared its second-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results, highlighting both positive performances and notable challenges.
- The quarter saw consolidated net sales grow by 8% year-over-year to $452 million, while the residential segment led growth with a 9% year-over-year increase in net sales.
- This robust performance was driven by mid-single-digit sell-through growth and continued expansion in product lines such as TimberTech and AZEK Exteriors.
Uber Technologies: Adoption & Integration of Autonomous Vehicles In An Attempt To Build A Unique Competitive Edge In Mobility!
- Uber Technologies’ Q1 2025 earnings call provided insights into the company’s performance, operations, and strategic outlook.
- The results reflected robust growth across key metrics, albeit in a competitive and dynamic environment.
- Here’s a synopsis of the key points from the call, reflecting both strengths and challenges faced by the company.
President Trump “orders US Chip Software Suppliers to Stop Selling to China”
- China represents ~11% of revenues for Cadence and Synopsys. The weight of China has been declining.
- China has a number of startup working on replacement software, the leader is Empyrean – good but some years behind Cadence and Synopsys and focused on legacy chip design.
- Between this news today and more restrictions on Nvidia’s sales to China, it looks like more US restrictions will come.
All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets
- By the time this insight is published, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.
- The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112
- If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.
Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile
- We believe Moody’s simply took the opportunity on the Tariff news to move USA’s rating to be in-line with those of the other two agencies.
- Though rising rates are not friendly to fixed rate bonds, we believe Asian high-yield bonds remain a good place to park capital in the near term
- We prefer short duration under 5 years to keep duration low in preparation for an upward pressure on rates in the near term.
Disney’s $875 Million Streaming Comeback and UAE Power Move Could Change Everything!
- Walt Disney’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report was met with a wave of investor enthusiasm, driving the stock up 11% to over $102.
- This optimism was not only driven by stronger-than-expected financials but also by the high-profile announcement of a new theme park in Abu Dhabi.
- The planned park marks Disney’s seventh globally and is set to be developed in collaboration with the Miral Group.
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