In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25 Leaderboard: Flow Expectations
- ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS
- AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders
- Zeekr (ZK US): Minorities Have Limited Options Amid Geely’s Low-Balled Offer
- Flagging a Recent IPO – Chagee (CHA) – Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers
- [Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds
- American Airlines Group: Network Expansion in Key Markets Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
- Colgate-Palmolive: Leveraging Brand Strength & Innovation in Emerging Markets To Push For Growth!
- Biogen, Inc. – Steady as She Goes as the Ship Continues to Turn Slowly
- FCN US: Segment Performance & Revenue Diversity As a Crucial Factor For Sustained Performance!
[Quiddity Index] MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25 Leaderboard: Flow Expectations
- The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. We expect there will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
- We expect one-way flows of US$122mm for the June 2025 rebal which translates to a turnover of 2%.
ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS
- Geely Auto (175 HK), the controlling shareholder, disclosed a cash or scrip non-binding proposal for ZEEKR (ZK US) at US$25.66 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares.
- While the offer is 22.2% above the IPO price, it is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and average sell-side price targets.
- The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal.
AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders
- AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided
- AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions
- Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.
Zeekr (ZK US): Minorities Have Limited Options Amid Geely’s Low-Balled Offer
- Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, has made an non-binding proposal for 65.7%-held Zeekr (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer.
- Geely is offering US$25.66/ADS, a paltry 13.6% premium. Or 12.3 newly issued shares. The Offer appears opportunistic after Zeekr’s 20% decline YTD (pre-Offer) in response to Trump tariffs.
- Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is timing. Trading tight at a 1.9% gross spread.
Flagging a Recent IPO – Chagee (CHA) – Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers
- As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.
- Fad cycles may or may not have legs – see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.
- Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.
[Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds
- Occidental’s Q1 revenue and EPS are projected to rise 14.4% and 23.8% YoY, driven by strong Permian production and improved oil and gas price realisations.
- Occidental’s average realised global oil price rose 1.9% QoQ, while NGL and natural gas prices surged 19% and 63.1%, respectively.
- Occidental’s average index prices for WTI and Brent rose 1.6% and 1.2% QoQ, respectively, while natural gas prices saw a sharp 36.1% increase.
American Airlines Group: Network Expansion in Key Markets Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
- American Airlines Group recently reported its first quarter 2025 financial results amid challenging economic conditions which affected the overall industry demand.
- Throughout the conference call, management conveyed both challenges faced and strategic initiatives undertaken to navigate the difficult environment.
- The company reported a first-quarter GAAP net loss of $473 million, or an adjusted loss of $386 million excluding special items, marking a noteworthy setback.
Colgate-Palmolive: Leveraging Brand Strength & Innovation in Emerging Markets To Push For Growth!
- Colgate-Palmolive’s latest earnings reveals a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2025, underscoring both opportunities and challenges that the company faces in its strategic operations.
- The company’s management approached the volatile economic environment with a sense of preparedness, though consumer behavior and global economic pressures have presented some difficulties.
- One of the significant challenges highlighted is the impact of a weaker consumer market, particularly evident in volume growth struggles.
Biogen, Inc. – Steady as She Goes as the Ship Continues to Turn Slowly
- 2025 guidance reaffirmed despite better-than- expected 1Q25 revenues.
- Despite beating expectations with a 6% Y/Y growth in reported revenues to $2.4B (8% Y/Y growth on a constant currency basis) for 1Q25, Biogen nevertheless maintained its full year revenue guidance for a mid-single digit drop in constant currency (CC) revenues, which will make it the sixth consecutive year of revenue decline for the company.
- Although Biogen lowered its 2025 non-GAAP EPS guidance range to $14.50-$15.50 from the previous range of $15.25- $16.25, this negative revision is not a sign of unanticipated business deterioration.
FCN US: Segment Performance & Revenue Diversity As a Crucial Factor For Sustained Performance!
- FTI Consulting delivered a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025 with both positive highlights and some areas of concern.
- The company’s revenues stood at $898.3 million, representing a 3.3% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.
- On a sequential basis compared to the previous quarter, revenues saw a marginal increase.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
