In today’s briefing:
- Tesla (TSLA): Go Short
- Corpay’s $2.2 Billion Move: Why The Alpha Group Deal Could Be A Game-Changer For Global B2B Payments
- Palo Alto Eyes SentinelOne: The $7 Billion Power Move That Could Reshape Cybersecurity!
- McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Another Private Equity Backed IPO Trades Below Issue, Closes Flat
- Datadog Eyes $1 Billion Upwind Deal: Could This Be A Game-Changer For Cloud Security?
- Deere & Co Is Quietly Dominating the AI Farming Revolution—Here’s Why It Could Be The TESLA Of Agriculture!
- [Earnings Preview] Shell Falters on Fundamentals, But Options Data Signals Optimism
- Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI): Another MedTech to Test the Market, Sets Terms for July 31 IPO
- Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Insurance Sector Brings Another IPO Winner to Market; Pops 36% at Open
- Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.
Tesla (TSLA): Go Short
- Not impressive earnings result for 2Q25 as revenue fell 12%, led by a weaker EV sales followed by lower sales from the renewable energy division as well.
- The highest-margin business contributor, regulatory credit, may be gone soon as recently the US government removed the financial penalty for higher emissions.
- Tesla (TSLA US) is trading at premium compared to its Chinese counterparts such as BYD (1211 HK) , NIO (9866 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK) .
Corpay’s $2.2 Billion Move: Why The Alpha Group Deal Could Be A Game-Changer For Global B2B Payments
- Corpay has made headlines with its definitive agreement to acquire Alpha Group International in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.2 billion (£1.6 billion).
- The transaction, offering Alpha shareholders £42.50 per share—a 55% premium over its undisturbed price as of May 1, 2025—is expected to close in Q4 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
- This acquisition comes on the heels of a busy strategic year for Corpay, including a $300 million cross-border partnership with Mastercard and a minority investment in AvidXchange.
Palo Alto Eyes SentinelOne: The $7 Billion Power Move That Could Reshape Cybersecurity!
- Rumors are swirling around a potential acquisition that could significantly reshape the cybersecurity landscape.
- SentinelOne, a company known for its autonomous endpoint protection platform, saw its shares surge after reports emerged suggesting that industry giant Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) might be in advanced talks to acquire it.
- While neither company has confirmed the speculation, multiple Israeli media outlets have cited industry sources suggesting a potential deal value of around $7 billion.
McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Another Private Equity Backed IPO Trades Below Issue, Closes Flat
- McGraw Hill (MH US) priced a full-size offering of 24.4mm shares at $17.00 and saw a flat opening print.
- This was the second private equity backed deal of the week and second to trade below issue.
- Ultimately, the deal did not have the “strength” and was forced to give-way to the buy-side with a $2 discount below the low-end of the range.
Datadog Eyes $1 Billion Upwind Deal: Could This Be A Game-Changer For Cloud Security?
- Datadog, a leader in observability and security, is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Israeli cybersecurity firm Upwind for approximately $1 billion, according to a report by Calcalist.
- The move comes just months after Upwind raised $100 million in a Series A funding round, valuing the startup at roughly $900 million.
- As Datadog continues expanding its product portfolio, especially in cloud-native security and AI observability, the potential acquisition of Upwind signals a strategic push deeper into cloud workload protection and runtime security.
Deere & Co Is Quietly Dominating the AI Farming Revolution—Here’s Why It Could Be The TESLA Of Agriculture!
- Deere & Co is no longer just a symbol of tractors and green machines — it has quietly transformed into one of the most dominant forces in agricultural technology.
- At the intersection of artificial intelligence and farming, Deere is building a future where its equipment not only performs fieldwork but also interprets real-time data, automates decision-making, and boosts crop yields through precision.
- The company’s recent developments, including strong second-quarter financials for fiscal 2025 and an impressive Investor Day presentation in Brazil, reveal a clear trajectory: Deere is shifting from traditional machinery to becoming a full-scale agri-tech platform.
[Earnings Preview] Shell Falters on Fundamentals, But Options Data Signals Optimism
- Shell’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10.6% QoQ and 16.9% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 29.9% QoQ and 34.8% YoY.
- Despite stronger refining margins, unplanned maintenance is expected to drag down downstream and chemicals earnings, pressuring overall performance.
- However, options positioning reflects bullish sentiment, with traders betting on a potential upside surprise despite a downbeat operational update.
Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI): Another MedTech to Test the Market, Sets Terms for July 31 IPO
- Shoulder Innovations will be offering 5.0mm shares at $19-$21 and to debut on July 31st.
- The underwriters have reserved up to 6% of the shares of common stock offered through a directed share program.
- The sector had a surprise underperformance from CarlsMed this week and will be looking to rebound with this upcoming IPO.
Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Insurance Sector Brings Another IPO Winner to Market; Pops 36% at Open
- Accelerant Holdings (ARX US) priced 34.46mm shares (upsized from 28.95mm) at $21.00($1 Above the $18-$20 range) and opened at $28.50 for a gain of 35.7% at first trade.
- This was the fifth insurance related IPO to debut in 2025 and all have been winners.
- We see this company having potential staying power in the short term. Several insurance related IPOs have traded higher for longer than many short term investors would have anticipated.
Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.
- 2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings.
- Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars.
- New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.
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