In today’s briefing:
- Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
- [Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
- Curator’s Cut: 2026’s Top Picks, Unpacking Meesho’s IPO & Navigating Lock-Ups
- Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2Wks To 5 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Lower Nets, BABA Still Bought
- 2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)
- Merger Arb Mondays (08 Dec) – Makino, Pacific Ind, Jinke, ENN Energy, Qube, NSR, Predictive Disc
- Quiddity ASX Dec25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; US$770mn Combined One-Way Flow; Avoid Crowds
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels
- Ohayo Japan | Rising Tensions
Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
- Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
- Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
- Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.
[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
- The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
- I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, “neither here nor there.”
- But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.
Curator’s Cut: 2026’s Top Picks, Unpacking Meesho’s IPO & Navigating Lock-Ups
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published on Smartkarma.
- In this cut, we unveil the first wave of 2026 high conviction ideas, break down the risks and rewards of the Meesho IPO and track upcoming lock-up expiries.
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.
Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows
- The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 5th December 2025.
- There will be four ADD/DELs for T50, three separate ADDs/DELs for T100, and three ADDs/DELs for TDIV.
- All of these changes were correctly predicted except for one surprise TDIV addition.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2Wks To 5 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Lower Nets, BABA Still Bought
- HK$77bn/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$88bn the week before, HK$100+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down.
- Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could re-up the pace .
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)
- NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges.
- NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.
- NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers.
Merger Arb Mondays (08 Dec) – Makino, Pacific Ind, Jinke, ENN Energy, Qube, NSR, Predictive Disc
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Quiddity ASX Dec25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; US$770mn Combined One-Way Flow; Avoid Crowds
- The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the December 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 5th December 2025.
- There are 20 ADDs and 20 DELs collectively for ASX 50, ASX 100, and ASX 200. We got 19/20 predictions correct.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels
- TSMC: +26.1% Premium; Remains at Level Rarely Maintained for More Than a Week; Good Level to Short the Spread
- UMC: +2.5% Premium; Historically Rare Level is a Short Opportunity
- ASE: +2.9% Premium; Wait Better Short Opportunity at Higher Levels
Ohayo Japan | Rising Tensions
- US stocks rose Friday, extending S&P 500’s fourth straight gain and ninth win in ten sessions, on data supporting a Fed rate cut this week.
- Japan accused Chinese jets of targeting its aircraft with fire-control radar near Okinawa; Beijing denied it, tensions rose
- Horiba (6856 JP): Oasis discloses 9.9% stake as stock +30% in 3M on AI/semi exposure. Target could be Y100b cash pile.
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