In today’s briefing:
- Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
- [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
- King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index
- Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
- Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
- [Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
- HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors
- Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
- Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
- He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
- This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
- The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
- That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
- The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn’t replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
- The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
- This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
- There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
- There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
- Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
- Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.
King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index
- King Slide Works (2059 TT)‘s stock price has more than doubled over the last 4 months and that should result in global index inclusion in August.
- King Slide Works (2059 TT) has outperformed its peer group over the last few months and now trades at a big valuation premium.
- There has been a lot of short covering, and positioning in the stock appears to be smaller than the estimated passive buying.
Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
- Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
- An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
- There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.
Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
- From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
- Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
- Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.
[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
- There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%.
- Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher).
- Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.
HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors
- The SEHK recently issued an update in response to its consultation paper in December 2025, with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
- In this note, we summarize the conclusion by HKEx and the rules to be implemented.
- We are of the view that overall, the changes will benefit ECM investors with greater certainty in allocations.
Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
- There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
- There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
- The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.
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