In today’s briefing:
- Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
- [Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
- Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) Tactical Outlook: Small Pulback or Large Pullback?
- [Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out
- VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum
- The Key to Revitalizing Existing TSE Growth Companies Is Whether They Can Expect Growth Through M&A
- Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
- Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
- There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
- Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
- Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
- The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
- There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.
[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
- Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
- The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
- The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.
Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO
- Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
- Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
- If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment).
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Tactical Outlook: Small Pulback or Large Pullback?
- As suggested in our previous insight, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) rally was at risk of pulling back: a small correction began last week.
- The big question now: is this just a minor 1-week pullback (a buy-the-dip opportunity)? or a larger pullback, possibly directed towards 23k?
- This insight discusses the various tactical scenarios, including profit targets for a continuation of the rally from here.
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out
- The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.
VLCC Shipbuilding: Aging Fleet, Lean Orderbook, and Renewal Momentum
- Fleet renewal tailwind: With an aging VLCC fleet (12.8 years average) and a lean orderbook (~9% of fleet), shipowners are incentivized to contract new tonnage.
- Regional differentiation: Korean yards dominate (~50% share, with listed exposure via Hanwha Aerospace, HD Hyundai, Samsung HI), China anchors volumes through CSSC, while Japan remains niche and unlisted.
- Cyclical caveat: Today’s high TCEs ($90k/day peaks) may not last; over-ordering could set up a 2028 glut, making VLCCs a cyclical rather than structural growth story.
The Key to Revitalizing Existing TSE Growth Companies Is Whether They Can Expect Growth Through M&A
- The reason why IPOs tend to become the goal is that many IPOs are conducted for purposes other than company growth after IPOs.
- In order to correct the notion that “IPO is the goal,” there are expectations for the revitalization of the market for trading unlisted shares and M&A of unlisted companies.
- With the entry of unlisted stock funds, trading in privately-held stocks will become active, and if M&A for growth and management changes take place, the quality of IPOs will improve.
Spotted a Quietly Emerging Passive Flow Trade: Long DB Ins, Short Samsung Life in December
- Samsung Life replaced DB Insurance at 5% vs 4.3% weight on June 13, triggering 0.2x DTV inflow/0.5x outflow; Samsung +1.79%, DB -4.97%, long-short net ~7%.
- For December, DB Insurance likely reclaims Samsung Life’s slot; with higher ETF AUM, expect ~+1.0x DTV inflow for DB, ~-0.6/-0.7x DTV outflow for Samsung.
- Still under the radar locally; expect big ETF rebal day moves. With June’s precedent, consider starting positions a day or two early before desk trades.
Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (26 September to 10 October 2025)
- In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (26 September to 10 October 2025).
- Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&T Dynamics, Samsung Electronics, KT&G, Samsung Life Insurance, Hana Financial, Hyundai Elevator, SK Inc, Lotte Tour Development, Naver, and Douzone Bizon.
- There have been some signs of shipbuilding and shipping services related stocks (such as HMM, SK Oceanplant, and HJ Shipbuilding) experiencing some weakness in the past couple of weeks.
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