In today’s briefing:
- CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
- Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way
- [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
- RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
- China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
- JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
- RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00
CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
- CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
- Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
- CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
- Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
- The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
- There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
- Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
- Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
- We expect one index change and roughly US$1.7bn in one-way index flows in December 2025.
[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
- Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
- They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
- And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer
- RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a Scheme with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
- Caterpillar, which currently holds no shares in RPMGlobal, is offering A$5/share (the same as in the NBIO), a 32.8% premium to undisturbed. Terms have not been declared final.
- FIRB and ACCC approvals are conditions. FIRB won’t be an issue. The key ACCC question is whether the combo has significant direct market overlap that triggers substantial competition concerns.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14.
- The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares.
- Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump.
China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
- Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
- The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
- China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
- The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
- The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
- There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00
- RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) at A$5.00 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The key scheme conditions are RPM shareholder, FIRB and ACCC approval. RPM’s benign shareholder structure facilitates completion.
- The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.7%/7.8%.
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