In today’s briefing:
- FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- High-Conviction TIGER Semi Top 10 Rebal Trade from MKF500 Rebalance Cues
- Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): An Impending KKR Takeunder?
- Biren Technology IPO: China’s “NVIDIA Moment” and The Rise of a Homegrown AI Chip Champion
- Shanghai Biren Technology Pre-IPO – Growing Rapidly, Sometimes
- March KOSPI Size Rebalance: Sanity-Check for Front-Run Angles
- Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer
- Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine – Thoughts on Valuation, Peer Comparison and Forecast
- ECM Weekly (22 December 2025) – SBI Shinsei, ICICI AMC, Insilico, Forest Cabin Sanhua, IFBH, CaoCao
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
- As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
- Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
- The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$7bn Trade over the Next Week
- There are 8 adds and 8 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$13bn.
- The ETF has started trading the stocks and is expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days.
- There are a few surprises and those stocks could outperform peers over the rest of the trading period.
High-Conviction TIGER Semi Top 10 Rebal Trade from MKF500 Rebalance Cues
- FnGuide’s December MKF500 rebalance adds Wonik Holdings (030530) to the semis bucket, clearing screens for TIGER Semiconductor TOP 10 ETF, Korea’s largest sector ETF.
- October rebalance: Wonik IPS added at 5% weight, pulling ₩100B passive flows and ripping 15%+ as retail chased.
- For April rebalance, Wonik Holdings’ high volume lowers theoretical passive impact, but strong retail chasing could trigger Oct 2–style price action—definitely worth monitoring.
Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): An Impending KKR Takeunder?
- On 19 December, Bloomberg reported that KKR has emerged as a frontrunner to privatise Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), but “the tender offer price may be lower than the current price.”
- Since the first Bloomberg article on 27 May, Taiyo’s shares are up 84% vs. the median peers’ shares, which are up 62%. Therefore, the shares reflect some takeover premium.
- Based on the medium-term management plan, which is likely KKR’s base case, I estimate a tender offer of around JPY4,624, 1.2% below the last close.
Biren Technology IPO: China’s “NVIDIA Moment” and The Rise of a Homegrown AI Chip Champion
- Biren Technology, a Shanghai-based fabless chip design company that develops intelligent processors for GPU and DSA computation architectures, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
- Biren Technology was founded in 2019 by CEO & Chairman Mr. Wen Zhang, who previously worked at AI software company SenseTime Group Inc.
- This is a red-hot upcoming IPO to watch, in my view. Moore Threads and MetaX Integrated Circuits have recently raised $1.1B and ~$600M in their public share offerings in Shanghai.
Shanghai Biren Technology Pre-IPO – Growing Rapidly, Sometimes
- Shanghai Biren Intelligent Technology, a GPGPU chips and computing solutions provider, aims to raise around US$600m in its Hong Kong listing.
- According to CIC, Biren was the first company in China to package dual AI computing dies using 2.5D chiplet technology and the first to support advanced interconnection specifications.
- In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.
March KOSPI Size Rebalance: Sanity-Check for Front-Run Angles
- LARGE stands at 99 post-HD Hyundai Mipo merger; March sees 5 into LARGE (including Samsung Epis), 4 to MID, with top movers comfortably above cutoff and MID gaps watchable.
- Two points: any names riding carryover rally momentum and mid-cap flows rising on sector rotation; LARGE candidates are hitting a pause phase, while top MID movers show clear rebound.
- Distortion risks should ease by T-1M; if sector rotation ramps, price action could occur earlier than usual—worth monitoring.
Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer
- Walmart (WMT US) is now eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing change from NYSE to Nasdaq on 9 December 2025, marking the largest exchange transfer in history.
- The listing transfer was completed after the December 2025 annual review cut-off, so Nasdaq100 inclusion is anticipated by December 2026.
- Forecasted passive fund demand upon inclusion is ~600m shares, $70bn and 25 ADV.
Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine – Thoughts on Valuation, Peer Comparison and Forecast
- The IPO pricing reflects the liquidity value brought by IPO and recognition of cornerstone investors, but InSilico is facing huge uncertainties.Its value will take several years to be verified.
- Our revenue forecast is US$55 million/US$70-90 million/US$100-150 million in 2025/2026/2027, respectively. Insilico may suffer losses in the next three years, but in 2027, the Company may turn loss into profits.
- The essential difference between QuantumPharm and InSilico lies in business models. We’re more optimistic about InSilico in long term, whose valuation may surpass QuantumPharm if InSilico can develop blockbuster drugs.
ECM Weekly (22 December 2025) – SBI Shinsei, ICICI AMC, Insilico, Forest Cabin Sanhua, IFBH, CaoCao
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, HK IPOs continue to be launched into the year end.
- On the placements front, there are a number of lockup expiries coming up over the next few weeks.
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