In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows
- [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Dec25), Really Disappointing CEO Comments/Questions
- CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: Large Flows & Impact on Friday
- National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield/GIC Firm A$2.86/Share Offer
- National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Binding Proposal at A$2.86
- 2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty
- 2026 High Conviction: Geely (175 HK) To Be the Largest
- Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Delisting EGM on 24 December as Acceptances Remain Unchanged
- HashKey Holdings Pre-IPO: Volatile Crypto Space, and Volatile Financials
- 2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Asia
Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows
- The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 5th December 2025.
- There will be four ADD/DELs for T50, three separate ADDs/DELs for T100, and three ADDs/DELs for TDIV.
- All of these changes were correctly predicted except for one surprise TDIV addition.
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Dec25), Really Disappointing CEO Comments/Questions
- TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
- This report skipped two months as there were no real developments until the 13 November Council meeting. 262 companies filed CGRs in November, 243 in October, 230 in September.
- The most recent set of documents has some really disappointing comments and questions from companies and their executives. It makes one wonder…
CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: Large Flows & Impact on Friday
- There are 2 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in December. Plus there are large capping changes for some stocks.
- Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$26.6bn (US$3.4bn). There are 16 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade.
- The adds drifted lower vs the deletes in September and October but have started outperforming in December. There could be more outperformance following announcement of the index changes.
National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield/GIC Firm A$2.86/Share Offer
- After National Storage REIT (NSR AU) entered a trading halt on the 26th Nov, it subsequently announced a NBIO from Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC.
- Brookfield and GIC tabled a A$2.86/share (~1.11x P/NTA 30th June 2025) Offer, by way of a Scheme. Any 1H26 distribution would be netted (not added, as I incorrectly posted previously).
- This morning, NSR announced it has entered into a Scheme on the same terms. Implementation expected late April 2026. FIRB and NZ’s OIO approvals required, in addition to the vote.
National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Binding Proposal at A$2.86
- National Storage REIT (NSR AU) has entered a SID with Brookfield and GIC at A$2.86 per unit, a 26.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The scheme offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB, NZ OIO and foreign competition (EU, Ukraine, Turkey, China, Korea) approvals.
- Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming. The scheme vote is low risk as the offer represents an all-time high and implies a P/NTA of 1.11x.
2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty
- In what promises to be another year fraught with uncertainty, politics and markets will again be dominated by the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular.
- Widely differing views of equity market prospects demonstrate this, i.e. the ‘bubble is about to burst’ doomsayers versus the bullish seeming consensus on Wall Street.
- However, the biggest challenge facing investors is focusing on what really matters amid the continuing ‘noise’ emanating from the Trump Administration in particular.
2026 High Conviction: Geely (175 HK) To Be the Largest
- The deliveries still grew strongly by 24% YoY in November 2025.
- We believe Geely will take BYD’s place as the largest Chinese producer.
- We also believe the stock has an upside of 49% for the next twelve months.
Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Delisting EGM on 24 December as Acceptances Remain Unchanged
- Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)’s revised composite document relating to Boyu’s enhanced offer of HK$8.69 will be despatched on 9 December. The delisting EGM is on 24 December.
- The enhanced offer is conditional on the shareholders’ approval of the delisting resolution (low risk) and the 90% minimum acceptance condition from disinterested shareholders (high risk).
- Acceptances have not budged since 18 November, which explains Boyu’s introduction of two acceptance options on 4 December. The 90% minimum acceptance condition remains problematic.
HashKey Holdings Pre-IPO: Volatile Crypto Space, and Volatile Financials
- HashKey Digital Asset Group Lt (2365361D HK) is looking to raise at least US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It operates the largest licensed crypto exchange in Hong Kong.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Asia
- In this insight, we provide a list of 50 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia in 2026 (excluding Korea).
- This report is meant to serve as a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed next year in Asia.
- Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, Kunlunxin, Shein, Flipkart, and Canva.
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