In today’s briefing:
- FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
- AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
- [Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
- Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
- Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round
- Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
- [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
- Ohayo Japan | Investors Rotate Out of Tech; Fed, Tariffs in Focus
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
- Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes
- The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
- There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is below the 10% cap for now.
- ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
- We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
- From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
- There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.
[Japan M&A] Bain Plays Announcement Games with Nissin (9066) MBO TOB – Noise A Possibility
- On 12 May 2025, Bain Capital announced a deal to buy Nissin Corp (9066 JP). The tender was VERY light in price (Bain’s borrowing more than adjusted EV at TOB Price)
- And it was very long at 41 days. As of Day 1, they announced a long list of “irrevocables” – 16 holders with 5.75% – who had agreed to tender.
- Since then Bain have made 7 separate amendment filings detailing additional irrevocables and one possible additional tender agreement to get to 11.30%. Now it’s extended.
Taishin (2887 TT)/Shin Kong (2888 TT) Merger: Index Flows in July
- Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) and Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) announced a Merger of Equals in August 2024 and completion is expected on 24 July.
- Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) has underperformed its peers over the last 18 months while Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) has underperformed its peers following the merger announcement.
- There will be passive flows in the merged entity following the completion of the merger and could help reverse some of Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)‘s underperformance.
Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Expensive Valuation and Mark up from Previous Round
- Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to $300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
Lens Technology (6613 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- Lens Technology (6613 HK)‘s global offering opened yesterday, and the raise could reach up to US$800m if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
- The allocation to cornerstone investors is smaller than in other recent AH listings. The discount of over 25% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for large listings.
- Lens Technology (6613 HK) could be added to a global index in December. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in August and HSCI inclusion could take place in March 2026.
HD HCE–Infracore Merger: Deal Mechanics & Trade Playbook
- This event offers two arb plays—merger swap and appraisal rights—but there’s barely any juice left as pricing locked the market into an unusually tight range.
- Yeah, it’s tight. Unless cancel risk flares up, the spread likely stays muted—major holder’s balanced stakes make vote pushback or ratio disputes pretty unlikely.
- One angle to watch: passive flows. HCE likely joins KOSPI 200 post-merger, triggering index buys around Infracore’s halt on Dec 30—potentially a solid year-end positioning play.
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jul25), Minor Updates
- TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
- 1,389 new CGRs filed since 1 June 25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
- The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Next meeting is in a week. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow.
Ohayo Japan | Investors Rotate Out of Tech; Fed, Tariffs in Focus
- The Dow gained 0.91% to close at 44,494.94 on Tuesday as investors rotated out of technology and into health care stocks
- President Donald Trump expressed scepticism on reaching a tariff agreement with Japan, emphasizing his intent to impose duties
- Kirin Holdings completed the sale of Kyowa Hakko Bio’s amino acid business
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