In today’s briefing:
- Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
- Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
- [Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible
- Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap
- Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer
- ECM Weekly (20 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, JST, Fibocom, Tekscend, FineToday, LG India, DIY, Duality
- Sany Heavy Industries A/H IPO Pricing – Thoughts on Valuations
- Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
- Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop
Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
- The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
- Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)‘s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
- With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
- There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
- There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
- Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
[Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible
- Today, in something of a surprise but not a complete surprise, Silvercape came out with its own bid for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at +20% from the Hakuhodo bid.
- They make it clear that the original bid does not protect minority shareholders or give them sufficient value. This one would. Which means that is Hakuhodo’s bogey.
- It would not be impossible for Silvercape to get to its minimum hurdle, but despite being lower than Hakuhodo’s it’s not a gimme.
Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap
- Softbank Group (9984 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
- Nearly half of Softbank Group‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.
- Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer
- SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer.
- The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
- The situation shares similarities with Soft99’s contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances.
ECM Weekly (20 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, JST, Fibocom, Tekscend, FineToday, LG India, DIY, Duality
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, India saw a host of listing, while HK is gearing up a busy year end.
- On the placements front, we had a look at some of the IPO lockups. There weren’t any large placements this week.
Sany Heavy Industries A/H IPO Pricing – Thoughts on Valuations
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) aims to raise around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.
- Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
- We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.
Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
- Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
- Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
- Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.
Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop
- After a huge upward move earlier this year, Remegen (9995 HK)‘s stock has started to drop as the sector starts to give back some of its gains.
- Despite the recent correction, Remegen (9995 HK) should be added to a global index in November and that could help the stock outperform its peers.
- There appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.
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