In today’s briefing:
- Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- [Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
- Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
- [Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
- Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
- Fresh Policy Momentum Hitting Korea Tape: Trade Is Lining up Around 13 Holdcos with CVC Exposure
- Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please
- Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO’s Offer
- Joy City Property (207 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 17 November Scheme Vote
Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
- The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
- With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
- There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
- Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.
- But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
- Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
- The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
- In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect at least six index changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
- When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard.
- But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
- Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.
Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
- Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago.
- The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
- There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.
Fresh Policy Momentum Hitting Korea Tape: Trade Is Lining up Around 13 Holdcos with CVC Exposure
- Gov’t likely to ease CVC rules; street chatter sees high odds. Tied to KRW150tn Growth Fund push, with corporates lobbying—cleanest path to juice capital flow.
- Holdcos at center of CVC‑easing; scrapping disclosure rule unlocks external capital. Street read: fast flip from control towers to re‑rating plays as real investment shops with growth portfolios.
- KFTC flags 177 holdcos, 14 with CVCs (13 listed). Street sees momentum flows hitting these 13 names; play via basket/overweight, with Doosan, Hyosung, LX as preferred plays.
Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please
- After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play Minmetals Land (230 HK), has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals.
- The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.
- Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026.
Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO’s Offer
- On the 31sr July, Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.
- Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.
- The Scheme Document’s now out, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable”. It probably is.
Joy City Property (207 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 17 November Scheme Vote
- Joy City Property (207 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback by way of a scheme at HK$0.62 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 17 November.
- While the offer implies a P/B of 0.29x, it is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
- Nevertheless, there remains vote risk and caution is warranted. At the current price and for a 4 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 8.8%/103.6%.
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