In today’s briefing:
- Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
- [Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
- Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
- Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups, Large Pre-IPO Investors Still Holding On
- Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: High-Impact Passive Sell-Off for Shanghai Commercial (5876)
- IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership
- Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market
- A Sharp Increase in Short Selling Balance in the Korean Stock Market Past Seven Months
Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
- The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
- With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
- There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.
Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
- Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago.
- The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
- There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
- When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard.
- But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
- Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
- The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
- In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect at least six index changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.
Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups, Large Pre-IPO Investors Still Holding On
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. Its first set of lockups expired in April 2025. The next one is due soon.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: High-Impact Passive Sell-Off for Shanghai Commercial (5876)
- The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
- We currently see three changes for T50 and three other changes for T100 in December 2025.
IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership
- Consumer electronics play IDT International (167 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. But don’t expect your usual Offer to unfold.
- On the 2nd October, IDT announced that Tiger Energy Technology, which holds 72.1% of share out, has been placed into receivership. Tiger Energy is 50% owned by Tiger Chen (ED).
- IDT was recently suspended for 581 days after failing to publish its annual results. Upon resumption of trading, predicated on a re-organisation, the major shareholder promptly exited. Without telling anyone.
Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market
- Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.
- Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.
- Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.
A Sharp Increase in Short Selling Balance in the Korean Stock Market Past Seven Months
- The net short selling balance in KOSPI reached 12.6 trillion won as of 20 October. This is the largest amount ever.
- The top 5 companies in KOSPI with highest short selling balance/market cap ratio include Kakaopay, L&F, Hanmi Semiconductor, Cosmax, and LG H&H.
- Net short position In KOSDAQ as a percentage of total KOSDAQ market cap more than doubled from 0.5% as of 31 March to 1.1% as of 21 October 2025.
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