In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting
- [Japan M&A/Activism] – Effissimo Keeps Buying Pacific Industrial (7250) Above New Terms
- CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade
- STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December
- Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics
- Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak as Tech Bounces
[Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
- Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP).
- The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them.
- If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): Fast-Entry Comeback
- TSE has approved the relisting of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), which is scheduled to go public on 17 December 2025 with an anticipated market cap of $8.4bn.
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is forecasted to achieve fast-entry in one Global index in December.
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) may be included in the other Global index at the next review, subject to float cap risk.
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: Still 2 ADDs Expected; Closing in on Base Date
- The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- The index changes for the December 2025 review will be based on the data on the close of 28th November 2025 and announced after the close of 12th December 2025.
- We expect 2 ADDs for December 2025 review, with one-way flow of US$1.9bn.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
- At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
- The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.
Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Effissimo Keeps Buying Pacific Industrial (7250) Above New Terms
- The Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) “MBO” was egregiously mis-priced. I was surprised the family did it but on 23 October, they increased their bid by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share.
- The stock was at ¥2,735 after activist Effissimo had built a 13% stake at ¥2365. The day after the announcement, the stock opened up through terms and continues to climb.
- Effissimo responded 4 days later, buying 2% of voting rights as the stock climbed past ¥3,000, another 1% later. Now the stock is 8+% through new terms. They’re not playing.
CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade
- There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the December rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 2.9% and the round-trip trade is around US$1.6bn.
- There is a fair amount of balance between sectors with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care expected to lose index spots to Industrials, Information Technology and Materials.
- The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June-September but have given up gains since then. Position in stocks that will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.
STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in December
- There could be up to 4 constituent changes for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in December. The announcement of the changes will be made after market close on 28 November.
- There will be between 0.1-0.35x ADV to trade in the changes but some of the forecast adds will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other indices.
- The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in July and August before giving up all the gains (and more) in a near one-way move over the last month.
Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK) prices at the low end of the range, Klook (KLK US) seeks to raise US$400 million.
- Event-Driven developments: Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP), Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP), Maruwn Corp (9067 JP), Star Micronics (7718 JP).
Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak as Tech Bounces
- Stocks bounced off intraday lows; Tech stocks recovered with Nvidia +1.8%, Oracle +2.4%, Palantir +1% by the close
- Investors still questioning elevated AI valuations, rising debt financing, and capex plans. Rate cut expectations receding.
- JP Earnings season drawing to close. NVIDIA results due on Wednesday likely to be focus of the week.
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