In today’s briefing:
- Mayne Disagrees With Cosette On MAC
- Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
- [Quiddity Index Aug25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs, 6 DELs, Two Recommended Trades
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
- QuantumPharm US$750m Lockup Expiry – Financial Investors Checked 35% of Stock into CCASS
- CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT
- Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement
- Palo Alto’s $25B CyberArk Deal: Major US and Global Index Implications Ahead
- RPMGlobal (RUL AU) In Caterpillar’s Crosshairs
- HEW: Policy Under Pressure
Mayne Disagrees With Cosette On MAC
- As widely speculated, Cosette asserted to Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) on the 17th May a Material Adverse Change (MAC) has occurred.
- Mayne disagrees, and views the pre-requisites for a MAC, as defined in the SID, have not been established.
- What now? The Scheme is not terminated. Both parties remain in consultation. If those talks are not satisfactory (say, a price reduction [my guess]), Cosette said it will walk.
Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
- The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
- It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
- In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.
[Quiddity Index Aug25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs, 6 DELs, Two Recommended Trades
- KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
- We expect up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs for the December-2025 index rebal based on the latest available data. Same count as a month ago, but 5/12 name changes.
- We have new charts available for all expected ADDs/DELs showing a variety of data we think worthwhile in terms of judging trade opportunity and risk. And two recommended trades.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
- In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
- The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
- Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.
QuantumPharm US$750m Lockup Expiry – Financial Investors Checked 35% of Stock into CCASS
- QuantumPharm (2228 HK) listed in Hong Kong after raising US$126m towards the bottom end of its IPO price range. Its six-month lockup will expire on 12th Dec 2024.
- QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT
- Kaname Capital reported a 5.80% ownership ratio in Carenet Inc (2150 JP). Most of the shares were purchased on August 18 and 19, i.e., after the announcement of the offer.
- Kaname has a recent history of agitating for a bump in the Proto Corp (4298 JP) tender offer. Kaname failed to prevent Proto from being privatised.
- EQT will initially take a wait-and-see approach. If Kaname acquires a 10% stake, EQT will start to worry, but it has several options to respond.
Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement
- While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness
- The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are still intact
- Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world
Palo Alto’s $25B CyberArk Deal: Major US and Global Index Implications Ahead
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW US) is acquiring CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR US) in a $25B stock-and-cash deal, with shareholders receiving $45 plus 2.2005 PANW shares per CYBR share.
- The transaction is expected to close in the second half of Palo Alto’s fiscal 2026 (February–July 2026), subject to customary regulatory approvals and CyberArk shareholder consent.
- Upon completion, the deal will trigger significant passive flows, with an upweight of Palo Alto Networks (PANW US) and the removal of CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR US) from relevant indices.
RPMGlobal (RUL AU) In Caterpillar’s Crosshairs
- RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a trading halt ahead of a rumoured tilt from Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
- No price has been made public; although local media are reporting an Offer Price of $5/share, a 32.6% premium to undisturbed.
- Shares will be suspended until the 2nd September. Earlier this year, RPMGlobal transitioned to a pure-play software company after offloading its advisory division.
HEW: Policy Under Pressure
- President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Cook, potentially gaining a supportive majority on the Fed, raises the risk that US policy overstimulates the economy.
- Policy peers should not be pressured to mirror mistakes. The ECB faces data that keep accumulating hawkish pressures, but others are more susceptible, like the BOK.
- Non-farm payroll data provide the last hope of blocking a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, a rise in EA inflation to 2.1% should help rule out another ECB rate cut.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
