In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. The ‘Tutes Are Leaving?
- Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short
- UK Jobs Find Their Floor
- [Quiddity Index] VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Rebal Results – 8 ADDs, 24 DELs
- Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float
- Tips for Using FnGuide to Run Top-Down Screens in Korea’s Policy-Driven Market
- Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song
- Key Findings on When to Enter Long-Short in the SKT Foreign Room Trade
- Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer
- Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. The ‘Tutes Are Leaving?
- On 27 August, Metaplanet (3350 JP) announced a large overseas offering in line with a pause in the 20th Warrant Issuance program it had outstanding. The goal? Buy more bitcoin.
- Shares had been ¥890 on the 27th, trading higher through the 29th. The offering priced at ¥553. Down 38%. Ouch. But it meant index upweight due to higher share count.
- Friday post-close, global index provider M _ _ _ announced a consultation on digital asset treasury companies, suspending the upweight for Metaplanet. Watch out MSTR!
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short
- In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since!
- A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.
- However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off.
UK Jobs Find Their Floor
- Stability in unemployment at 4.66%, while payrolls only marginally decline, suggests the labour market has found its floor before disinflationary pressures accumulate.
- A narrative-breaking improvement could occur next month. Tax rises structurally explain the scale of the previous shock, with weakness seemingly not going beyond that.
- Excess supply is needed to break wage growth to a target-consistent trend. Without that, the MPC should hold rates before potentially reversing by raising them in 2026.
[Quiddity Index] VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Rebal Results – 8 ADDs, 24 DELs
- Friday post-close the MarketVector™️ Global Gold Miners Index announced its rebalance changes and as a result, the flows for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF are known.
- As per the expectations of our Quiddity Index PS, the MVGDX added only Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) resulting in 8 ADDs and 24 DELs for the VanEck benchmark change.
- The significant move in gold prices the last month have more than doubled the deletion/capping flow total to $12.6bn. There are some REALLY big flows here.
Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float
- In the past 24 months, J-REIT sponsors have bought units in their REITs at sharp discounts to PNAV to raise PNAV and reduce overhang pressure.
- The goal is, basically transparently, to get PNAV to a level at which the REIT can buy more properties from the sponsor, who carries them at a much higher WACC.
- Mori Building has announced a 4.99% buy on Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation (3234 JP) which is a Very Big portion of Max Real World Float. This should influence price.
Tips for Using FnGuide to Run Top-Down Screens in Korea’s Policy-Driven Market
- KRX provides broad official market data, but no consensus estimates. FnGuide aggregates broker reports, standardizes them, and delivers actionable consensus numbers for practical trading use.
- FnGuide’s consensus data is solid and well-structured for screening, though coverage is limited to ~300–400 stocks, which still aligns with the practical trading universe.
- FnGuide’s paid services require Korean residency or a corporate workaround, making access tough for overseas traders; realistically, we can rely on their free sites for financials, consensus, and basic screening.
Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song
- Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.
Key Findings on When to Enter Long-Short in the SKT Foreign Room Trade
- SKT’s foreign stake drop sparked early divergence vs KT—long SKT/short KT paying off, though KT’s hacking risk muddies how much is pure event-driven.
- This isn’t an add/delete, just a weight bump—flows lag until announcement. Aug ’20 SKT doubling factor is the cleanest comp for today’s setup.
- SKT vs KT spread widened post-screening; SKT outperformed 12%. Weight bumps lag vs ins/outs, so expect similar flow—timing long-short entry matters to avoid bleeding carry.
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer
- Effissimo has formally launched its hostile tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, which is 66.3% higher than the MBO price of JPY2,465.
- The Board stonewalled Effissimo’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. The huge premium of Effissimo’s offer relies on lower WACC assumptions compared to the target/special committee IFA.
- Management’s initial approach will be to rely on the Board to oppose the Effissimo offer. There is a good chance that Soft99 will remain listed with two large shareholders.
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
- Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
- The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
- There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.
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