In today’s briefing:
- Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August
- India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
- 60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
- Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game
- HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)
- Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount
- Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely
Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August
- The slide in Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
- Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last couple of months and trades cheaper than the average of its peers.
- There are indications of positioning in the stock. However, positioning is likely smaller than the estimated passive selling and there could be more downside for the stock near-term.
India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
- Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
- The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
- Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.
60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
- Revisions to the draft are almost certain, but near-term flows will still trade off the current framework—so screening now helps front-run likely winners before the final version lands.
- Out of 386 stocks with FY1/FY2 consensus data, 60 names screen in based on FY2: payout ≥40% or ≥25% with DPS up 5%+ vs. 3Y avg.
- This tax reform will still drive near-term KOSPI flow—these screened names are core policy plays worth building setups around.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK) missed global index inclusion in May following completion of full circulation. The primary placement in May then improved chances of index inclusion in August.
- The stock rose nearly 60% in the 2 months following the placement and has lost more than a third of its value from the peak in the last month.
- The stock could be added to both global indices with one inclusion at the end of August and one in mid-September. That could provide short-term support for the stock.
Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game
- Samsung’s playing its old game—sacrificing margins to shake rivals—aiming to disrupt DRAM and win HBM4, assuming it clears NVIDIA’s HBM3E qual test soon.
- Local intel says no official word from Samsung yet, but the street thinks qual’s done—hence Samsung’s bold HBM3E tone and oversupply warning on the call.
- There’s urgency—Samsung’s undercutting Hynix now to stop them from reinvesting cash into DRAM fab expansion, a playbook Samsung once dominated with.
HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly
- Almost exactly eight months after HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, China Mobile (941 HK) has now satisfied all pre-cons.
- The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or around the 12th August, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances.
- This could turn unconditional early September. Trading tight at a gross spread of 1.5%. Keep in mind a basket of peers are up 23% since the Offer was announced.
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlight: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200
- Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP), the parent, at JPY4,200, a 21.7% premium to the last close price of JPY3,450.
- The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the mid-point of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range.
- The precondition relates to regulatory approvals in Japan and India. The tender offer is expected to start in early February 2026. This is a done deal.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount
- TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Continued Opportunity to Short the ADR Premium
- UMC: -0.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
- ASE: -1.5% Discount; Historically Rare Discount Presents Opportunity to Long the ADR Spread
Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely
- The drop in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
- Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.
- There is positioning in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP), though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
