In today’s briefing:
- Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes
- Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses
- Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation
- Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case
- ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery
- Pop Mart International – Valuation Using Peter Lynch’s PEGY Ratio
- [Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms
Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business
- For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
- The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
- There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes
- There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX50 Index, 3 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 9 changes for the S&P/ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) and 17 adds/ 12 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index.
- Some of the index changes will also have same way flows from trackers of other global and sector indices on the same day.
- The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices and performance has been especially strong for the S&P/ASX100 Index and S&P/ASX300 Index changes.
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) will replace Citizen Watch (7762 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) after the close of trading on 30 September.
- BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) will be deleted from the NKY INDEX following the spin-off from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
- The index committee has decided not to add Kokusai Electric to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of Citizen Watch points to sector balance.
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT
- Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses.
- That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
- It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses
- Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close.
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) is IN. Citizen Watch (7762 JP) is OUT. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)? MIA.
- In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years.
Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation
- Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
- The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.
- Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH’s peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x.
Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case
- Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.
- Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
- The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.
ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, a few US$1bn+ IPOs are said to be looking to launch later this month, across regions.
- On the placements front, deals continue to flow through as the market remains receptive.
Pop Mart International – Valuation Using Peter Lynch’s PEGY Ratio
- In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s valuation using Peter Lynch’s PEGY ratio.
- If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.
- WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART’S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.
[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms
- Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August.
- Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050).
- As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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