In today’s briefing:
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
- Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: Key Methodology Changes; High-Impact Flows; US$3.6bn One-Way
- Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer
- Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: Tung Ho Steel TDIV Deletion In the Money Now
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Waiting for A Rally
- Tekscend Photomask IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
- Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.
- [Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June
- UK: Government Leads Imbalances
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
- Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
- Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: Key Methodology Changes; High-Impact Flows; US$3.6bn One-Way
- The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
- There were some key methodology changes announced for this index yesterday.
- In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.
Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer
- Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
- The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
- While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal.
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: Tung Ho Steel TDIV Deletion In the Money Now
- The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
- Currently, we see two changes for T50 and two changes for T100 in December.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Waiting for A Rally
- In our previous Fast Retailing (9983 JP) insight we identified a potential BUY opportunity ahead of the September 25 rebalance, but the rally failed to materialize.
- The stock at the moment is oversold, according to our quantitative model, so we would like to review its tactical outlook in this insight.
- Right now, the stock is the most oversold of all the Asian stocks we track, probability of WEEKLY reversal stands at 72%, after last week’s Close.
Tekscend Photomask IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, aims to raise around US$830m in its Japan IPO.
- TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.
Zijin Gold : Listing Pop Likely. Know Your Thresholds. Avoid Valuation Pitfalls.
- Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
- As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
- Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.
[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely
- Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
- 93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
- It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: TPX Add in Nov; Global Index: One in Feb; One in June
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
- At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
- The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.
UK: Government Leads Imbalances
- Household saving and inflation have eroded their debt burden while corporates remain prudent. A lack of imbalances to correct starves the UK of fuel for a recession fire.
- Persistent fiscal and current account deficits highlight where the UK’s primary risk lies. If the market regime focuses on fiscal issues, the corrective pressures could be fierce.
- We don’t expect that correction to occur, but the Chancellor should tread carefully, while doves need not worry about a recession arising from healthier other UK sectors.
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