In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change
- Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Short Timer, FX Risk, Index Flows – Time To Buy Vs Peers
- Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
- BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain
- [Japan M&A] NTT Docomo Buys Out Carta Holdings (3688) Minorities – Done Deal
- SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too
- ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Application Proof Is Out. Interesting For What Is Not Present
- Why Late August Could Be the Pivot Point for the Hanjin KAL Trade?
- Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued
- BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
- That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
- The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Short Timer, FX Risk, Index Flows – Time To Buy Vs Peers
- Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks.
- The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life.
- There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!
Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
- Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
- The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
- Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.
BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain
- BYD announced that the company would provide price discounts for 22 models.
- BYD has scale advantage over other NEV car makers and the NEV industry has bargaining power over suppliers and dealers.
- The auto association and the Ministry of Industry are trying to protect small companies from bankruptcy.
[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo Buys Out Carta Holdings (3688) Minorities – Done Deal
- On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
- It’s an OK price, not a great price. But while they are not calculated by advisors, at least the Target Board talks about the value of synergies to minorities.
- The price is light, but the combined irrevocables and large individual shareholders not brought over the wall get this over the line.
SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too
- In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
- Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
- Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.
ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Application Proof Is Out. Interesting For What Is Not Present
- On the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) (ENN-NG), its largest shareholder.
- The pushback is that the scrip portion pivots off the value of newly-listed ENN-NG H-shares. And the IFA’s theoretical assessment on such leaves a lot to be desired.
- A redacted version of ENN-NG’s application proof is now out. Curiously, the share ratio – new ENN-NG H Shares for each ENN shares – is noticeably absent
Why Late August Could Be the Pivot Point for the Hanjin KAL Trade?
- KDB just signaled they’ll offload their Hanjin KAL stake post-merger, likely in 2027—ending speculation they’d stay long-term to back Cho Won-tae.
- The 9% held by Daishin and Eugene PEs may hit the market in August, with LPs likely to cash out—Hoban grabbing it could flip the whole Hanjin KAL setup.
- If Hoban grabs the 9% PE stake in August, it could trigger a pre-2027 bidding war—possibly even a tender offer—to lock down float. This is the key near-term pivot.
Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued
- CaoCao (2643 HK) is looking to raise up to $236m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance
- As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details.
- In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
- The stock is currently mildly oversold according to our WEEKLY model: it could fall a bit more, but if this week closes in negative territory there could be a rebound.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
