In today’s briefing:
- ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion
- Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
- IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
- Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
- [Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
- Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
- StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill
- Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion
- Converting Samsung Life’s Samsung Electronics Stake to Long-Term Holdings: Clearing up the Confusion
- Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far
ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion
- With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
- ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
- The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.
Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
- Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
- There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
- There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
- The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
- With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.
Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
- In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
- That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
- What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.
[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
- The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
- Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025.
Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
- MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.
- Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US).
- United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).
StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill
- A double dose of stubs this week! T’Way Air (091810 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder is seeking to spill the board. T’way Air and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are up big time.
- Preceding my comments on the T’way Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion
- On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)‘s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
- The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%.
- Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly.
Converting Samsung Life’s Samsung Electronics Stake to Long-Term Holdings: Clearing up the Confusion
- Samsung Life needs FSC approval for a 10-year holding plan on its Samsung Electronics stake. Without it, the whole plan could fall apart, so it’s all about regulatory green lights.
- If FSC approves Samsung Life’s long-term holding, they can’t sell those shares for at least 5 years—no exit strategy for the next half-decade due to regulatory rules.
- Samsung Life will convert part of its stake into long-term holdings, signaling how future buybacks and special dividends will balance in Samsung Electronics’ next shareholder return program.
Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far
- Sichuan Biokin is looking at a A-H listing and is looking to raise up to USD 500 million.
- In this note we look at the company’s fundamentals briefly including its heavyweight product BL-B01D1. We also examine its deal with BMS.
- The stock has performed well on Shanghai STAR board since its A share listing.
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