In this briefing:
- Tesla Motors Inc: Come Hell or High Water
- Nintendo: Is the Hype Surrounding the Switch Slowly Dying Down?
- Hyosung Holdings: 10%p Drop in Discount to NAV Should Be Reverted Soon
- Recruit Holdings Down 30% From October; Still Not Cheap
- Uber IPO: Its Sprawling Empire And Battle Lines (Part 3)
1. Tesla Motors Inc: Come Hell or High Water
It is our view, that come hell or high-water, in 2019, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) will establish itself as the pre-eminent large-cap growth stock. Those that are short would cover the position at a loss and those that are long are looking at another Apple Inc (AAPL US) or Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) in the making. The ride may be volatile, but will be worth it.
2. Nintendo: Is the Hype Surrounding the Switch Slowly Dying Down?
Nintendo reported their 2QFY03/19 in October with results showing growth at both the top line and bottom line albeit not living up to consensus expectations. Top line grew by 4.0% YoY to JPY388.9bn in 1H03/19 while OP grew by 53.9% YoY to JPY61.4bn. OP in the last quarter (2QFY03/19) was the second highest the company has experienced over the last five years. This growth has been mainly driven by the sales of Nintendo Switch hardware which sold just over 5m units in 1HFY03/19. However, YoY growth remained at 3.4% compared to 4.9m units sold in 1HFY03/18. This has left investors worried about Nintendo’s aggressive target of selling 20m units of the Switch for FY03/19. Of this target, the company has managed to achieve only around 25.0% in 1H. Nintendo’s financial performance follows a seasonal trend with the December quarter showing stronger performance due to increased sales during Christmas. While the company’s current quarter is likely to show strong results, we remain skeptical about the company reaching the aforementioned target for FY03/19.
Switch Sales Have Caused an Improvement in Nintendo’s OP….
….Despite a Slowdown in the Growth of Units Sales
Nintendo’s Last Quarter Has Also Failed to Live Up To Consensus Expectations
3. Hyosung Holdings: 10%p Drop in Discount to NAV Should Be Reverted Soon
- Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) had fallen 16% just in two days. Holdco is now at a 50% discount to NAV. This is a 10%p drop from 10 days ago (Dec 19). Holdco price must have been overly corrected. The ongoing police investigation on Cho Hyun-joon’s alleged crime won’t lead to a delisting. 10%p drop in discount to NAV must be a price divergence, not a sensible price correction.
- Trade volume remained steady. Local hedge funds led the selling on Dec 27. Even they changed their position the following day. No short selling spike has been seen either. Hyosung is one of the highest yielding div holdco stocks. Hyosung Capital liquidation and Anyang Plant revaluation would be another short-term plus.
- I’d exploit this price divergence. It would soon revert to the Dec 19 discount level. It should at least stay at the peer average.
4. Recruit Holdings Down 30% From October; Still Not Cheap
The share price of Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) has fallen by around 30% over the past three months from an all-time high of JPY3,826 (on 1st October 2018) to JPY2,705 on 24th December 2018. Prior to this, Recruit’s share price saw a strong upward rally during May-September following the company’s announcement that it would acquire Glassdoor Inc. (the company which operates the employment information website glassdoor.com).
We expect Recruit’s consolidated revenue to grow 7.7% and 6.5% YoY in FY03/19E and FY03/20E respectively, driven by the acquisition of Glassdoor and steady growth in Japanese staffing operations, partially offset by a likely slowdown in global labour market activity. We also expect Recruit’s consolidated EBITDA margin to improve by around 50bps due to higher margin from Glassdoor.
Despite the recent dip in share price and steady topline and bottom line growth over the forecast period, at a FY2 EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x, Recruit doesn’t look particularly attractive to us. Recruit’s internet advertising business and employment business peers, Yahoo Japan (4689 JP) and Persol Holdings (2181 JP) are trading at FY2 EV/EBITDAs of 7.7x and 9.6x respectively.
| FY03/18 | FY03/19E | FY03/20E |
Consolidated Revenue (JPYbn) | 2,171 | 2,338 | 2,490 |
YoY Growth % | 11.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% |
Consolidated EBITDA (JPYbn) | 258 | 288 | 312 |
EBITDA Margin % | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.5% |
Source: Company Disclosures/LSR Estimates
5. Uber IPO: Its Sprawling Empire And Battle Lines (Part 3)
Although Uber aims to be an Amazon for transport, we will focus on the ride-hailing market in part 3 of this series. Here, we try to answer the following questions:
- What are the indicative ride-hailing market shares of Uber vs Lyft in North America?
- What is Uber’s share in other key countries?
- What are the lawsuits investors should watch out for?
- How do Uber’s revenue drivers compare with Lyft’s?
- What are the timelines and key figures for both companies’ IPOs?
This is the third note in a series about the expected 2019 IPO of global ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies (0084207D US) and Lyft. Please read the earlier two pieces in the series for better contexts:
Uber IPO Preview: Its Sprawling Empire and Battle Lines (Part 1) written by me.
Uber IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Uber Eats Has Become a Material Part of Uber (Part 2) written by Daniel Hellberg
