Event-Driven Archives | Page 32 of 187 | Smartkarma

I tally 61 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Six new deals! Australia’s SelfWealth (SWF AU), and Japan’s Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tohto Suisan (8038 JP), Tecnos Japan (3666 JP), Proto (4298 JP), & Toyo Sugar Refining (2107 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU) , Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) , Fuji Soft (9749 JP), Suntec REIT (SUN SP), and Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT).

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech

You could label Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)“BULLISH” because the stock goes up rather than down; but you could easily label this BEARISH because the prospects aren’t exciting.
WH Group (288 HK)spins off Smithfield Foods (SFD US) – below the prior expected price range. Pricing looks full here.
As China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s Partial Offer heads towards the pointy end, do you buy, and/or borrow, and tender; short outright; or short tender?

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 03 – 07): Implied Vol Does a Roundtrip

By John Ley

Implied vols rose 2.22 points in Monday’s sell off but round-tripped on the week, giving all the gains back by Friday.
Rough start to the week amid tariff talk, Kospi dropping 2.64%.
At this level we expect implied vol to remain more reactive to price shocks than we have seen over the past two months.

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Feb 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC
CNBM (3323 HK): A Closer Look At Proration
Korea’s First ATS Launching March 4: Arb Opportunities to Watch
Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape
Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company
Naturgy Acquisition Talks: Diplomatic and Financial Hurdles Persist

Shin Kong (2888 TT) / Taishin (2887 TT) – Waiting on the FSC

The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread – still wide – is narrowing.

CNBM (3323 HK): A Closer Look At Proration

Back on the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China’s leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
As this elevates CNBM’s parent’s stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, independent H-shareholder will vote on a whitewash waiver on the 19th February.
Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. It is likely to be higher. The question is whether to buy, and/or borrow, and tender; or simply short outright.

Korea’s First ATS Launching March 4: Arb Opportunities to Watch

Korea’s first ATS goes live on March 4, starting with 10 tickers based on liquidity and market cap, expanding to 800 over time. First 10 revealed next week.
KRX vs ATS arbitrage will be key, with execution speed differences causing price dislocations, especially for KOSPI 200 stocks. Lower ATS fees may shift institutional flow, increasing arb opportunities.
On top of that, lack of market makers could widen bid-ask spreads, creating opportunities for spread scalpers to profit.

Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape

Sidenor’s non-binding offer: Raised to €4.8 per share for 29.8% of Talgo, with a fixed €4.15 and €0.65 contingent on financial targets in 2027 and 2028.
Competing interest from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons: Polish and Indian bidders are considering offers, while SEPI explores involvement to maintain Spanish control over Talgo.
Uncertainty persists: Regulatory approvals, financial conditions, and competing bids complicate Talgo’s ownership future, with binding offers due by February 14, 2025.

Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company

Indra is shifting to a pure-play defence and space company, divesting from IT services (Minsait) to achieve higher valuation multiples in line with aerospace and defence peers.
Hispasat and Hisdesat acquisition will generate €400 million in revenue and €190 million EBITDA by 2026, with synergies reaching €50-70 million EBITDA by 2030.
Indra’s valuation could rise 40-60% by 2026, as defence and space grow to 65% of revenue, increasing EV/EBITDA multiples from ~7x to 10-12x.

Naturgy Acquisition Talks: Diplomatic and Financial Hurdles Persist

Diplomatic tensions hinder acquisition: Algeria opposes Taqa’s takeover of Naturgy due to geopolitical conflicts with the UAE, complicating Spain’s energy security and disrupting acquisition negotiations.
Corporate governance challenges: Naturgy faces board restructuring, with five seats up for renewal and shareholder disputes over representation, potentially impacting governance stability and strategic decision-making.
Despite acquisition uncertainties, Naturgy is expected to report solid 2024 financial results and unveil a strategic plan focusing on decarbonization, diversification, and operational efficiency in early 2025.

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Feb 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2025) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2025)
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index
WellNeo Sugar (2117) To Buy Toyo Sugar (2107) – Too Cheap, No Synergies Paid, but Too Small
A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea
Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes
Crooz Sells Online Mall Business to Korea’s Nugu
Ecopro Materials Block Deal Timing Closing In: Breaking Down the Situation
CPPTL Real Estate Trust Liquidation: Potential 28-45% Upside Amid Portfolio Sale
Paragon 28 Acquisition by Zimmer Biomet: Evaluating the Free CVR Opportunity and Growth Potential

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2025)

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) and Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) continue to be in our watchlist of pre-event candidates for TOPIX Inclusions.
Separately, the TOPIX Liquidity factor removal event will take place in April 2025 and there could be some positive index flows for Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) during this event.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Final Expectations; Expected DELs Could Underperform Index

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and four changes for NIFTY 100. We expect the results to be announced in the next few days.

WellNeo Sugar (2117) To Buy Toyo Sugar (2107) – Too Cheap, No Synergies Paid, but Too Small

WellNeo Sugar (2117) today announced a deal to buy Toyo Sugar Refining (2107 JP) at a 27% premium. This is a small ¥11bn deal where insiders own 45%.
Normally I wouldn’t even talk about a deal this small but this one has something going for it. Two things actually.
And readers will have to read all the way down to the conclusions to find out the key one, but the setup is that it is too cheap.

A Partial Tender Offer of Englewood Lab by Cosmecca Korea

By Douglas Kim

On 6 February, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) launched a partial tender offer on Englewood Lab (950140 KS).
Cosmecca Korea announced that it plans to purchase 11% (2.185 million) of Englewood Lab’s outstanding shares at the tender offer price of 10,000 won.
It appears that this partial tender offer is an attempt by Cosmecca Korea to increase its stake in Englewood Lab even further, capitalizing on the lower share price.

Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.
Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.
Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card’s value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Following their inclusion in the F&O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries‘ average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp‘s. It’s very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.

Crooz Sells Online Mall Business to Korea’s Nugu

By Michael Causton

Crooz’s Shop-list.com used to be one of the fastest growing online fashion malls in Japan but, just before Covid, it hit a wall and hasn’t recovered since.
Now it will be merged with Korean fashion mall, Nugu, and its real value as a database of young female consumers will become clear.
This should help Nugu grow to GTVs of ¥100 billion from Japan alone but will leave Crooz as a small bit player in digital services.

Ecopro Materials Block Deal Timing Closing In: Breaking Down the Situation

Yoon Kwan’s appeal won’t change much—it’s just stalling. His tax uncertainty is now priced in, so the reason to delay selling his EcoPro M stake is quickly fading.
The BRV block deal won’t follow the new pre-disclosure rule, as Yoon’s likely to classify BRV as a financial investor, so no one-month heads-up.
The deal’s likely in 2-3 weeks; volume will spike 2-3 days before. Once we catch the signals, it’s time to position for the EcoPro M block trade.

CPPTL Real Estate Trust Liquidation: Potential 28-45% Upside Amid Portfolio Sale

By Dalius Tauraitis

CPPTL, a real estate trust, is liquidating 121 JC Penney-leased properties, potentially offering 28%-45% upside by 2025.
Major shareholders, primarily former JC Penney creditors, own 70% of CPPTL shares, indicating potential eagerness to exit.
CPPTL properties are marketed with Newmark; initial offers expected by February 26, targeting 7%-8% cap rates.

Paragon 28 Acquisition by Zimmer Biomet: Evaluating the Free CVR Opportunity and Growth Potential

By Dalius Tauraitis

Paragon 28 is being acquired by Zimmer Biomet for $13/share in cash plus a non-transferable CVR tied to 2026 revenue.
The CVR pays up to $1/share if Paragon’s revenue reaches $361m, requiring a 19% CAGR over two years.
The merger is supported by management and faces minimal regulatory hurdles, with DaCosta incentivized to achieve CVR targets.

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Feb 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates
Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong
Pentamaster (1665 HK): 28th Feb Vote On Parent’s Offer
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Three’s A Crowd As Brookfield Joins Bain And CC Capital
Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible
PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Free Float to Determine Global Index Inclusion
Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿

Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at JPY4,300 per share, a 37.2% premium to the last close.
The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals (Japan, Taiwan) and Board recommendation (can be waived). The offer is scheduled to start on 7 May.
The offer represents an all-time high. The Board has three options: facilitate a friendly offer, find a white knight bidder or launch an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍

With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
171 new CGRs were filed since 31-Dec-2024. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
A surprising number of smaller companies have yet to file a MCoCC/SP Awareness report. As cross-holdings get sold down, I expect they will become activists targets in 2025.

Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong

By Douglas Kim

Must Asset Management, a 3% shareholder of Young Poong (000670 KS), started to go activist on the company on 5 February.
Based on current market cap, this would represent a P/B of 0.2x using the consolidated controlling interest equity of 3.9 trillion won!
There is some speculation that Must Asset Mgmt may form an alliance with Chairman Choi’s family as it proposed to Young Poong to recommend outside directors.

Pentamaster (1665 HK): 28th Feb Vote On Parent’s Offer

On the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
The Offer Price is HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th February, and expected settlement on the 26th March. The IFA says “fair and reasonable”.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Three’s A Crowd As Brookfield Joins Bain And CC Capital

One exceptionally crowded data room as PE outfit Brookfield Capital joins Bain Capital and CC Capital with a matching A$4.60/share NBIO, via a Scheme, for Insignia Financial (IFL AU).
Brookfield’s Offer may include a scrip alternative in an unlisted bid vehicle, subject to caps. As with Bain and CC Capital’s Offers, Brookfield’s Offer would ultimately require FIRB signing off.
And similar to Bain and CC Capital, Brookfield has been afforded a limited period of access to certain non-public information on a non-exclusive basis.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible

The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we see three expected changes. However, since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Free Float to Determine Global Index Inclusion

Low free float market cap has kept PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) out of a major global index so far.
An increase in float recently to just above 15% could result in the inclusion of the stock in the index in February and that will trigger large passive buying.
There is positioning in the stock, and the future stock path will depend on whether it is added to the index or not.

Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote

Pentamaster International (1665 HK)’s IFA opines that Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital’s HK$1.00 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 February.
The IFA analysis is biased because it conveniently ignores a relative valuation analysis, which would show that the final offer is unattractive compared to its global peers.
Disappointingly, there is little minority opposition to an arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging valuation multiple discrepancies across two exchanges.

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Feb 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer
Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850
Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)
Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February
Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer
Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) – Small Cap IT Consultant Goes Private – Activist Pitches In
Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High
Ola Electric IPO Lockup – US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer

Tam Jai International (2217 HK), an operator of Asia noodle specialty restaurants, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
On the 13th November 2024, Tam Jai announced 1H25 net profit – to 30th September 2024 – declined 55.8% yoy to HK$36.1mn, its lowest six-month tally since listing.
Toridoll Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) controls 74.61% of Tam Jai. Expect a Scheme to unfold. An Offer price around HK$1.50/share would be welcome. That’s probably a stretch.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

KKR & Co (KKR US) has increased its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.
A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week.
Expect a final round of bids, as KKR’s offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR’s offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range.

Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)

Proto Corp (4298 JP) is not the name on people’s lips, but everyone who knows cars in Japan knows this company. They have run car mags for decades.
Now they do other things too but car magazines, websites, and associated data provision are worth 90% of OP. And they are ubiquitous, and growth has been good.
Management forecasts for growth are a damp squib. This is opportunistic.

Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP): Ant Capital’s JPY1,155 Tender Offer

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Ant Capital at JPY1,155, a 38.7% premium to the last close.
The offer is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and represents a seven-year high.
Ant has secured irrevocables from the top three shareholders. However, the largest shareholder’s irrevocable has a counteroffer and share price clause, which could result in a competing bid.

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP)‘s tender offer from Aso Corp is JPY7,500, a 39.1% premium to the last close. Tohto Suisan is currently in breach of the tradable share ratio.
Unusually, the offer has no lower or upper limit. If the required ownership ratio is secured, Aso will implement squeeze-out procedures.
While supportive, the Board has left the decision to accept or reject the offer at the shareholders’ discretion. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high.

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) – Small Cap IT Consultant Goes Private – Activist Pitches In

Tecnos Japan (3666 JP) decided it wanted to go private. It has a bunch of large shareholders and a lot of retail, and was getting kicked out of TOPIX.
An activist bought 6% last spring, Tecnos conducted a bidding process last fall. Ant Capital won. The activist has 10+% now. They and two others with 25% agreed to tender.
This should get done easily. It is not expensive, but an auction is good process and should be a model for deals done in future.

Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High

Proto Corp (4298 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer at JPY2,100, a 64.1% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and 25% above the all-time high.
Despite the presence of two substantial shareholders, an attractive offer suggests that this is a done deal. The tender offer ends on 21 March, with payment on 28 March

Ola Electric IPO Lockup – US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) raised around US$734m in its India IPO in August 2024. The lockup for its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Feb 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares
Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action
Vesync (2148 HK): Antitrust Condition Satisfied, and the Scheme Vote Remains Low-Risk
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That
SelfWealth (SWF AU): Peter Thiel-Backed Svava Crashes Bell’s Offer
EQD | Nifty Index Options Weekly (Jan 24 – 31): Second Longest Decline Since 2007
Vesync (2148 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of The Scheme Vote
Daemyung Sono Group May Wage a Public Opinion War for T’Way Air
EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 27 – 31): USD/JPY and Nikkei at a Stalemate
Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF, AAF, WDC)

Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares

Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.
Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time).
Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.

Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action

Once Samsung F&M burns treasury shares, Samsung Life’s stake hits 16.93%. If they avoid a subsidiary, they’ll need to dump ~817K shares. Today’s ruling makes that move much less likely.
Samsung Life’s value-up announcement could be major, likely dropping around their earnings call on February 20, with solid intel backing this move.
The balance of dividends vs. buybacks, plus Samsung Life’s 10% stake ceiling, will drive volatility for Samsung Electronics. Samsung Life’s value-up release, before Samsung Electronics’, will boost market clarity.

Vesync (2148 HK): Antitrust Condition Satisfied, and the Scheme Vote Remains Low-Risk

On 27 December 2024, Vesync (2148 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from the Yang family at HK$5.60. On 28 January, the antitrust condition was satisfied.
Despite a light offer, the scheme vote is low-risk. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, there is a scrip option with no cap, and there is no retail opposition.
The scheme document will be despatched by 11 April. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 6.9% and 22.7%, respectively.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That

Halfway through the review period, there could be 6 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in June. The LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) listing could increase that number.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.1-26 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-11 days of ADV.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months and the performance gap is near its widest point.

SelfWealth (SWF AU): Peter Thiel-Backed Svava Crashes Bell’s Offer

On the 25th November, online trading player SelfWealth Ltd (SWF AU) entered into a SID with Bell Financial (BFG AU) at A$0.25/share after outbidding AxiCorp Financial Services.
Now Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava has tabled a non-binding A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Svava also holds an effective blocking stake – 18.8% of shares out.
SelfWealth said Svava’s proposal “while indicative and non-binding, could be reasonably considered to become a superior proposal.” BFG needs to step up.

EQD | Nifty Index Options Weekly (Jan 24 – 31): Second Longest Decline Since 2007

By John Ley

Nifty has been in a prolonged downtrend, currently 4 months in duration and clipping 10.3% off the index. This is the second longest decline since 2007.
When looked at vs the extent of this decline, implied vol is at the bottom of its historical range and historic vol also quietest in a down-move since 2007.
Implied vol is trading at or above peak levels seen on historic vol since the decline started and implied remains negatively correlated to movements in spot.

Vesync (2148 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of The Scheme Vote

Back on the 27th December, Vesync (2148 HK), a manufacturer of small home appliances, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Yang family controlling ~69.04% of Vesync.
The Cancellation Price of $5.60/share, declared final, was a 33.3% premium to undisturbed, and above the 2020 IPO price of HK$5.52/share.
The US anti-trust condition has now been fulfilled. The Scheme Doc dispatch has been extended to the 11 April. I estimate payment under the Offer late May.

Daemyung Sono Group May Wage a Public Opinion War for T’Way Air

By Douglas Kim

In the past two trading days, share prices of T’Way Air (091810 KS) and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are down 16.4% and 14.1%, respectively.
According to Hankyung daily, Daemyung Sono Group Chairman Seo may choose to wage a public opinion war, instead of purchasing additional shares.
If Daemyung Sono Group is unable to take over the management control of T’Way Air using this method, then a potential tender offer of T’Way Air is possible later on.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 27 – 31): USD/JPY and Nikkei at a Stalemate

By John Ley

This week we add in some additional graphs and commentary highlighting USD/JPY vs Nikkei 225.
Implied vols were very reactive to spot to open the week with Nikkei dropping almost 1% on Monday.
Heavier volume on the down days with Puts making up 57.8% of the total weekly volume.

Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF, AAF, WDC)

By Richard Howe

There were no new spin-off announcements this week, but I’ve done some more work on the Aptiv (APTV) spin-off announcement.
Aptiv PLC (APTV), an automotive technology supplier, announced on January 22, 2025, that it plans to split into two distinct companies.
Aptiv will spin-off its electrical systems business. The RemainCo will concentrate on technological components, including sensor-to-cloud solutions and autonomous driving software.

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Feb 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Osaka Steel (5449) Large Buyback At a Discount Ruins Fun For Activists and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Osaka Steel (5449) Large Buyback At a Discount Ruins Fun For Activists
India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February
FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake
KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Smaller Deal Than Usual
Merger Arb Mondays (03 Feb) – ESR, LifeStyle China, Vesync, Giga Prize, Sanyo, Ascot, Seven & I
Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP): NIKKON (9072 JP) Offer’s 273% Premium Results from an Auction
Weekly Deals Digest (02 Feb) – NTT UD REIT, Sanyo, Ascot, Giga Prize, Lifestyle China, Dada, LG CNS
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): No Love For The Scrip Alternative

Osaka Steel (5449) Large Buyback At a Discount Ruins Fun For Activists

Osaka Steel (5449 JP) is 65% owned by Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP). They make a relatively simple set of steel products used by shipbuilders, construction companies, and warehouse builders.
Activist Effissimo Capital went over 5% in October 2016 and is still a top holder. Activist Strategic Capital went over 5% in December 2023 and now owns 10+% of votes.
The “hope” had been that Nippon Steel buy out minorities and Osaka Steel would be rescued from mediocre capital returns. That was not to be. Activists are disappointed.

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 13 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in February.

FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake

There could be 1/2 changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the HKEX.
Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the FXI and there could be further deviations from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) options.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Smaller Deal Than Usual

The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced first week of March and implemented at the close of trading on 13 March.
We forecast two changes for the Bio Index and one change for the Internet Index. Plus there will be capping changes for all indices.
The largest flows will be in Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, POSCO Holdings, Alteogen, Naver Corp, Legochem Biosciences, Netmarble and Celltrion Inc.

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Feb) – ESR, LifeStyle China, Vesync, Giga Prize, Sanyo, Ascot, Seven & I

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP), Giga Prize (3830 JP), Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP), Ascot Corp (3264 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).

Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP): NIKKON (9072 JP) Offer’s 273% Premium Results from an Auction

Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP) has recommended Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)’s tender offer at JPY5,034, a 273.2% premium to the last close.
The extraordinary premium resulted from a competitive auction, enabling Toyota Motor (7203 JP), the largest shareholder, to sell most of its stake.
The offer is well above the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and more than double the all-time high. Stating the obvious, this is a done deal.

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Feb) – NTT UD REIT, Sanyo, Ascot, Giga Prize, Lifestyle China, Dada, LG CNS

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million, and Guming Holdings (GUM HK) seeks to raise US$300 million.
Event-Driven developments: NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP), Ascot Corp (3264 JP), Giga Prize (3830 JP), Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Dada Nexus (DADA US).

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): No Love For The Scrip Alternative

Back on the 10th December 2024, Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) announced a rare Scheme buyback, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a punchy 95% premium to undisturbed.
A successful Scheme would result in Fosun International (656 HK) and concert parties holding 100% in Fosun Tourism – without having to outlay a cent.
A scrip alternative was afforded IF expressions of interests from 1% of shares out occurred. That didn’t happen. Still a clean deal. Scheme Doc dispatch is the 14th Feb.

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Feb 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share
Giga Prize (3830 JP): FreeBit (3843 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal
Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Sigma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, WH Group
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: LONGs up ~10% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sigma Healthcare Dropsuite, Japfa, Dada Nexus, Malaysia Airports, Sanyo Steel

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) has recommended Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board’s requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples.
The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share

For the month of January 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~57%, excluding Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)‘s massive takeunder.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .

Giga Prize (3830 JP): FreeBit (3843 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Giga Prize (3830 JP) has recommended Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,500, a 48.5% premium to the last close.
While the offer is below the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range, it represents an all-time high and aligns with the Board’s requested price.
The required minority acceptance rate is modest, and tendering by the third-largest shareholder is enough to close the deal.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Sigma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, WH Group

It was confirmed on Friday afternoon Fast Retailing (9983 JP) was a single cap move, NOT a double-capping in a single Review. That limits the sell down.
Chemist Warehouse’s reverse buyout of pharmacy wholesaler Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is now all-but complete.
Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced decent results, decently upgraded guidance in both IFRS/GAAP terms and in Core/Adjusted terms (less impressive uplift in Adjusted/Analysed terms). They also announced a ¥100bn buyback.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: LONGs up ~10% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 8 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.
The Sigma Healthcare – Chemist Warehouse merger will be completed soon and there will be major inflows for Sigma Healthcare due to float percentage/share count upgrades.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sigma Healthcare Dropsuite, Japfa, Dada Nexus, Malaysia Airports, Sanyo Steel

I tally 58 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Ten new deals discussed this week! Australia’s Dropsuite, Red Hawk,; Singapore’s Japfa, SLB; Japan’s Global Food, Ascot Corp, Chuoh Pack Industry, Giga Prize, Sanyo Special Steel; and Dada Nexus.
Key updates/news took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK), China National Building Material (3323 HK), Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), and Sun Art (6808 HK).

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Feb 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Nippon Steal! Again. Parent Takes Out Sanyo Special Steel (5481) At Well Below Book and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Nippon Steal! Again. Parent Takes Out Sanyo Special Steel (5481) At Well Below Book
Daito Trust Buys Out Listed Private Co Ascot (3264 JP) – Small Done Deal at ¥260
Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal
Sabadell’s Dividend Strategy and the BBVA Takeover Bid
EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index – Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.
Nikkon Pays 273% Premium for Chuoh Pack (3952 JP) In Takeover
EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy – Today’s All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging
EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Option Opportunities Across the Regions
Freebit (3843) Buys Out Minorities in Giga Prize (3830) – Light, But Tough to Block

Nippon Steal! Again. Parent Takes Out Sanyo Special Steel (5481) At Well Below Book

6-7 years ago Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) bought out a large foreign specialty steel company, and funded it by getting Nippon Steel to inject capital at below book.
Now Nippon Steel is buying the rest of Sanyo Special Steel in a Tender Offer at 0.66x book, where most of book is Net Receivables, Inventory, WIP, and Materials.
This is the second time in a decade where the Board has decided to sell control of itself at far below book value. They should be ashamed of themselves.

Daito Trust Buys Out Listed Private Co Ascot (3264 JP) – Small Done Deal at ¥260

Ping An Insurance bought into a small Tokyo-based condo developer in 2017 at ¥255/share. In 2020, it reinvested on the dip with SBI at ¥155/share.
Ping An and SBI started with zero shares. By 2020 they had 80+% of shares. Now they are selling out to Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP).
This is a done deal at a slight premium to book value. Daito Trust buys Real Estate Available for Sale and assumes debt. That’s it. Easy peasy done deal.

Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Daito Trust Construction (1878 JP)’s Tender Offer a Done Deal

Ascot Corp (3264 JP) announced a tender offer from Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP) at JPY260 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close.
Ascot currently does not meet the 25% tradeable share ratio criterion. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges but below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
This is a done deal, as irrevocables represent an 82.78% ownership ratio, well above the minimum acceptance condition (67.86% ownership ratio).

Sabadell’s Dividend Strategy and the BBVA Takeover Bid

Sabadell plans a €500 million share buyback to maintain stock value, reducing the attractiveness of BBVA’s exchange offer and increasing shareholder resistance to the takeover.
Regulatory scrutiny intensifies as BBVA-Sabadell would control 39.63% of Catalonian banking credit, raising competition concerns, particularly in SME lending and payment services.
The market expects BBVA to raise its offer by 10-20%, but BBVA’s CEO insists there is “no room” for improvement, making shareholder approval uncertain.

EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index – Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

NSE Nifty Bank Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
Putting implied volatility into context with the NSE Nifty Bank Index 200 day moving average will lead to a different conclusion. Selling volatility might not be the opportunity it seems.
This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which level implied volatility can be assessed as rich.

Nikkon Pays 273% Premium for Chuoh Pack (3952 JP) In Takeover

Today, Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP) announced it would take over Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP) for ¥5,034/share. It closed today at ¥1,349. This is a HUGE win for governance.
The 273% premium is not the big win here. For holders it is, of course, but for Japan Inc shareholders everywhere, the win was the auction process.
This could have come out at 100% premium and that might have been OK. As it is, cross-holders and one big holder together get this deal done. Congrats!

EQD | S&P/ASX 200 Option Strategy – Today’s All-Time-High Calls for Proactive Hedging

Today, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) reached a new all-time high while implied volatility is near record low levels. The combination makes for a good opportunity to hedge.
Volatility assessment trough conventional volatility metrics and one new chart not seen anywhere else.
An actionable example of a put option hedge is presented, striking a balance between protection and cost.

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Option Opportunities Across the Regions

Global option markets present a diverse picture, offering a broad opportunity set.
Several markets make for good hedging-candidates after a strong January and amid cheap options.
Although several Indian indices show high implied volatility, contextual analysis indicates volatility may be fairly priced relative to their bear trends.

Freebit (3843) Buys Out Minorities in Giga Prize (3830) – Light, But Tough to Block

Today, Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP) announced it would launch a Tender Offer next Monday to buy out minorities in 60.9%-owned Giga Prize (3830 JP).
The multiple is not terribly impressive. It could be better. But they only need 5.8% of the 39.1% they do not own to get this over the hump.
Synergies are clear. They are expected. They are not priced in the valuation. This is disappointing. Again.

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Jan 31

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF
Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results
SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Jan 2025 Ranks
Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme
Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?
BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications
EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems
Abrdn European Logistics Income Trust Liquidation: 23% Upside Potential Amid Asset Sales

Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF

Today after the close, Global Food Creators (7559 JP) announced that the CEO would sell his 1.23% of the company into an MBO by a company he set up.
The family company which owns 27%, and he would fund the takeover of the other 73% with 1% equity taken from his share sale, and 99% bank loans.
The TOB is at 0.65x book for a cash-rich company. Liquidate the cash and the rest is being taken over at 0.33x book. Aaaaargh.

Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results

Today Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced earnings which will mean last year was the trough, not this year. The pipeline looks OK too.
The company also announced a ¥100bn buyback and a change of CEO. The buyback has a big number, but it isn’t particularly exciting.
All in all, there’s positive news here, but it is all much of a muchness, but as it is a nine-figure buyback in 3mos, we take a look.

SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice

This 20% reversion and 30% cap setup creates solid flow trades. With just 13 holdings, SOL ETF’s weight swings hard—Hanwha Ocean’s already pushing 27% post-rebal.
Constituent changes drive the biggest dislocations—still the main setup. “The other 10” names are FICS-screened by market cap (May/Nov cut), making rotations fairly predictable.
With AUM only ramping recently, this ETF is still in price discovery mode. Pre-positioning ahead of flows has juice, making it a prime target for aggressive flow trading.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Jan 2025 Ranks

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-January 2025.

Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme

Dropsuite (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
NinjaOne is offering A$5.90/share, a 34.1% premium to last close. Apart from Dropsuite’s shareholder approval, the Offer requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards.
The Offer also has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%. Implementation is expected late May 2025. This is done.

Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) plans to sell a 31% stake in Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) reducing ownership to 20% by 2025, triggering a 20% decline due to valuation concerns.
The implied sale valuation is lower than market expectations, raising concerns about growth, profitability, and stock overvaluation, while the parent company capitalizes on an asset arbitrage opportunity.
Short-Term stock pressure due to stake sale overhang, declining profitability, and reduced parent control, but potential long-term re-rating if operational performance improves.

BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications

Hostile Takeover Attempt: BMPS launched a €13.3B all-share bid for Mediobanca, offering a 5% premium, but Mediobanca rejected it, citing governance conflicts and strategic misalignment.
Shareholder and Dilution Risks: BMPS shareholders face 39.3% dilution, while Delfin and Caltagirone’s post-merger 24% stake raises governance concerns, potentially sidelining smaller investors.
The deal faces integration risks, and Mediobanca’s shareholder resistance, with BMPS’s falling stock price erasing the initial premium, making success increasingly uncertain.

EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems