india Archives | Smartkarma

• Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.
• Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.
• Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.

• GE Vernova T&D has secured a landmark HVDC-VSC order for the Khavda-South project, materially improving multi-year revenue visibility.
• The win reinforces GVT&D’s positioning in India’s grid transformation, strengthens backlog to record levels, and supports sustained earnings growth through FY28.
• With HVDC, grid digitalization, and capex acceleration aligned, GVT&D remains a high-quality transmission compounder with incremental upside optionality.

• Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN) is in the limelight after it reported a fraudulent activity in its step-down subsidiary, KGPL. 
• The funds were embezzled and siphoned by CFO of its subsidiary over a period of two years. Amount involved was INR 200 mn, corresponding to 6-7% of consolidated FY25 PAT. 
• This raises questions on both internal controls and role of statutory auditors. Also, we note a very high gross PPE turnover ratio in KGPL which leads doubt on revenue recognition/capex.

• Q2FY26 witnessed sequential NIM stability at 11.2%, but the adverse product mix shift toward transactors, coupled with higher operating costs, led to a lower pre-provision operating profit and PAT.
• The company is actively sacrificing immediate yield for better asset quality and volume growth through RuPay/UPI integration, addressing key regulatory and positioning itself to capture theTier II-III consumption base.
• If the stabilization of funding costs and the anticipated moderation of credit costs materialise, the premium valuation may be justified by renewed focus on higher-yielding revolving assets.

• The Reserve Bank of India has given the green light for HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) subsidiaries to jointly buy up to 9.5% of Indusind Bank (IIB IN) .
• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)reached oversold state, according to our model, but this is a bullish trend pattern and so we think this week is a good time to buy.
• The stock could rally, and if the rally unfolds from this week onward it could reach the 1037-1062 profit target zone.

• Reliance Industries (RELIANCE IN)mirrors India’s economic pulse, integrating energy, retail, and digital sectors to drive consumption, industrial growth, and widespread digital adoption across the nation.
• Q2FY26 delivered robust double-digit growth with revenue up ten percent, driven by strong consumer business momentum and a sharp recovery in fuel refining margins.
• Future growth is contingent on scaling New Energy gigafactories, monetizing 5G and AI investments, and executing the planned listing of retail and digital consumer businesses.

• Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.
• Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.
• Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.

• Established Market Leader with Clear Expansion Roadmap: Wonderla is the largest amusement park operator in India, possessing a strong brand recall and a proven track-record of profitable operations. The company is embarking on a significant expansion phase with new parks recently opened in Bhubaneswar and a flagship park in Chennai set to open, which are expected to be key growth drivers.
• Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Indian amusement park industry is nascent and underpenetrated, poised for significant growth driven by rising disposable incomes, a large youth population, and increasing consumer preference for experiences over products. This provides a long runway for growth for established players like Wonderla.
• Robust Financials and Prudent Capital Management: The company maintains a strong, debt-free balance sheet with healthy cash flow generation from existing parks. Its unique in-house ride manufacturing capability provides a significant cost advantage for both new projects and maintenance, supporting high operating margins.

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• India Shelter Finance is a rapidly growing housing finance company focused on the underserved affordable housing segment in India’s Tier II and Tier III cities.
• The company targets self-employed individuals, a niche with significant growth potential but also higher inherent credit risk. Its in-house, technology-driven model for loan origination and servicing is a key operational strength.
• Strong financial performance, characterized by robust AUM growth and healthy profitability, is a key attraction. However, the company’s high valuation and exposure to interest rate volatility are notable risks.

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• NMIAL commissioning in Dec-25 shifts AEL from trading volatility to regulated airport earnings, supporting a structural rerating through FY27.
• EBITDA mix moves toward airports and renewables (>70%); IRM shrinks to a residual contributor.
• Fair value ₹2,750–3,000 (execution ₹3,300+), driven by utilisation, non-aero monetisation, and capital-structure transparency.

• The latest results reveal strong double-digit growth in the newly separated Engineering business, confirming the strategic shift toward high-precision manufacturing in Aerospace & Defence and Auto Components.
• Successful completion and initial performance validation of the demerger process transforms Raymond into two pure-play, specialized manufacturing entities poised to capitalize on global “China + 1” and Indian aerospace tailwinds.
• The structural re-rating thesis remains firmly intact, driven by accelerating margins in the Aerospace vertical and long-term contract visibility.

• November 2025 traffic hit a record ~11.1 million passengers, up ~7.4% YoY (ex-Cebu). Delhi led with 7.3 million passengers and its highest-ever monthly passenger and aircraft movement volumes.
• Traffic has normalized post infrastructure disruptions. Broad-based growth across Delhi and Hyderabad, alongside ~2.7% YoY YTD international growth, improves visibility on aero and non-aero revenue expansion into FY26–27.
• Focus shifts from recovery to sustainable compounding, led by Delhi and Hyderabad, where domestic scale and rising international connectivity act as structural growth multipliers.

• AceVector Ltd (3673145Z IN) (AVL) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by IIFL and CLSA.
• AVL is a digital commerce ecosystem comprising (i) Snapdeal, a value-focused lifestyle e-commerce marketplace, (ii) Unicommerce, an e-commerce enablement SaaS platform, and (iii) Stellaro Brands-an omnichannel consumer brands retailing business.
• Together, these businesses cover the entire e-commerce value chain across B2C and B2B segments catering to multiple stakeholders vertically- through both online and offline modes and horizontally.

• Q2 FY26 showed healthy spend growth but structurally weak profitability, with yield compression, elevated credit costs, and higher OpEx offsetting sharp funding-cost relief
• Portfolio mix skewed toward transactors and EMI-led spends drove lower interest-earning assets, capping NIM at 11.2% despite a 69 bps QoQ drop in cost of funds.
• Credit costs remain materially above historical levels, with heavy write-offs keeping ROE anchored in the low-teens and limiting near-term earnings recovery.

• Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) since its IPO has been under scanner. The management presented a very optimistic narrative in Q1FY26, hoping to turn tides, increase volumes, along with better profitability.
• As things stand, volumes continue to hit new lows, market share continues to tumble and the new narrative of Auto EBITDA positive could possibly be an eye wash.
• The company’s strategic mismanagement is unmasked and and with internal controls disappearing . Ultimately, the promoter sell off could be a final nail in the coffin.

• Context: The Yes Bank (YES IN) vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Yes Bank (YES IN) and short IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Ola Electric saw a sharp sales collapse, lost its E2W leadership to TVS Motor, and witnessed founder Bhavish Aggarwal selling 1.54% stake worth INR 234 crore across two sessions.
• The combination of a ~50–70% sales decline, market share erosion, guidance cuts, and promoter stake sales raises concerns around demand sustainability, execution gaps, and balance-sheet stress at the promoter level.
• Despite selective operational improvements, Ola Electric’s weakening sales momentum and promoter de-risking signal a shift from aggressive growth to damage control, warranting a cautious stance until demand visibility stabilises.

• JSW Energy is aggressively expanding its power generation capacity with a target of 30 GW by 2030, focusing heavily on renewable energy sources, which positions it well to capitalize on India’s energy transition.
• The company’s financials are stretched due to significant capital expenditures for growth projects, with a high Net Debt to EBITDA ratio, posing a considerable financial risk.
• While the company’s strategic pivot to renewables and ventures into energy storage and green hydrogen are forward-looking, successful and timely execution of its massive project pipeline remains a critical uncertainty.

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• TCS achieved $1.5 billion in annualised AI revenue with 16.3% QoQ growth, significantly outperforming traditional service segments and signaling a successful transition to AI-led growth.
• The company implemented a five-level “Human + AI” service autonomy model, progressing from simple tools to self-learning “Agentic Enterprises” to modernize global service delivery.
• TCS launched HyperVault for gigawatt-scale AI data centers and reskilled 580,000+ employees, positioning itself as a full-stack orchestrator in the global AI ecosystem.

• HBL Power Systems (renamed HBL Engineering) has secured the first RDSO approval for Kavach 4.0, propelling its order book to over INR 4,000 crore as of December 2025. 
• HBL is entering its most intensive execution phase to date, with a revenue guidance of INR 3,000 crore for FY26 (a ~55% jump YoY).
• The Railway Board has cancelled approximately 7,000 undelivered units industry-wide, effectively weeding out underperforming vendors and preparing for a massive 18,429-unit re-tender cycle.

• Delhivery is India’s largest fully integrated logistics provider, well-positioned to capitalize on the country’s rapidly expanding e-commerce and manufacturing sectors. Its tech-driven, asset-light model provides a scalable platform for growth.
• The recent acquisition of Ecom Express solidifies its market leadership in the express parcel segment. Synergies from this integration are expected to drive margin improvement and enhance its rural delivery network.
• After a period of significant investment and losses, the company has demonstrated a strong turnaround to profitability in FY25. However, it trades at a premium valuation and faces key risks from high revenue concentration and intense competition.

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• Recent results are disappointing and point to slower organic growth especially in the much higher margin Healthcare Services division.
• The recent results also provide further evidence revealing the difficulty in expanding the network outside of management contracts.
• Apollo is the cheapest of the three main listed hospital groups. At 48 forward PE & 26 forward EV/EBITDA, we expect the core division to be growing faster (9%, Sept-25,Q2-results).

• Milky Mist plans an IPO with a INR 17,850 million fresh issue to reduce debt, expand manufacturing capacity, strengthen cold-chain infrastructure, and support growth in value-added dairy and RTE/RTC segments.
• Leadership in branded paneer, strong revenue momentum, and rising demand for value-added dairy products position the company to improve margins, strengthen its balance sheet, and scale operations efficiently.
• Supported by favorable industry trends, a strong brand, and disciplined capital deployment, Milky Mist is well positioned for sustained growth in India’s premium dairy and convenience food market.

• The company operates a rare, vertically integrated aerospace ecosystem within an Indian SEZ, serving global OEMs like Airbus and Boeing across three continents.
• The dominant Aerospace segment shows strong growth and margins, while the Consumer segment is in a heavy investment phase with temporary negative profitability.
• While reporting persistent net losses due to high finance and depreciation costs, the company shows recovering revenue momentum and significant EBITDA expansion.

• Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)stock corrected over 5% recently after citi’s research analyst note highlighted that the expected recovery in Net Interest Margins would be significantly delayed. 
• A repo rate cut triggered faster asset repricing, while the bank’s ability to cushion margins through lower deposit costs is effectively exhausted.
• Investors must expect flat margins for longer, as the recovery timeline has now shifted to the fourth quarter of FY26.

• ICICI Prudential AMC raised around US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.
• We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates and valuations.

• The NCLT has approved the Sequent-Viyash merger. The 56:100 swap ratio consolidates two Carlyle-backed entities into an INR 8,000 Cr+ Life Sciences platform.
• The injection of Viyash’s 9 USFDA facilities and 28% EBITDA margin profile structurally repairs Sequent’s historical profitability issues, creating a diversified CDMO + Animal Health entity.
• With pro-forma EBITDA running at INR 760 Cr (Annualized) and a management upgrade via Dr. Hari Babu (Ex-Mylan COO), the stock is primed for a re-rating if execution holds.

• NCLT approval removes the key overhang, enabling Vedanta’s break-up and forcing valuation discovery across aluminium, zinc/silver, power and O&G.
• Aluminium becomes the anchor, with falling costs and ~50% EBITDA share; zinc and silver provide resilient cash flows and downside protection.
• Intrinsic SOTP ₹1,020–1,050/share implies ~78–83% upside from CMP ₹572; execution-weighted 12-month TP ₹770 offers ~35% upside with downside protected even under stressed aluminium prices.

• Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) will split into 5 independent listed entities: Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Oil & Gas, Vedanta Power, Vedanta Iron & Steel/Ferrous Materials, residual Vedanta Ltd (like zinc, silver). 
• Existing shareholders will receive one share in each of the 4 demerged entities for every one share held in Vedanta Ltd (1:1 ratio).
• The Mumbai bench of NCLT approved Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) demerger plan on December 16 lead to streamline operations, improve management focus, and unlock shareholder value.

• Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) , India’s largest EMS player, benefits from PLI schemes and the China+1 strategy, driving a robust 55% revenue CAGR and scale expansion.
• The stock’s 32% correction was driven by the regulatory probe into Chinese clients and broader EMS sectoral governance concerns.
• Strong financial health with 51% ROCEsupports medium-term growth momentum, making its valuation attractive despite high short-term volatility.

• The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is in the middle of a very mild correction, the index is now in its 3rd week down but the pullback has been very minimal.
• We think this is the ideal set up to add LONG NIFTY 50 positions: mild pullback coupled with a high probability of reversal on our quantitative TIME MODEL.  
• The proposed tactical LONG trade will be valid for this entire week, if the index stays below last week’s Close.

• It is reported that Life Insurance industry is evaluating a shift away from traditional front-loaded commissions toward a deferred commission structure.
• Moreover, IRDAI has intensified oversight of distribution expenses and management costs in the general and health insurance segments and looks to lower the EoM cap for the insurers.
• These changes if considered, could pose meaningful near-term growth and margin headwinds for PB Fintech or Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN), which is already under pressure from the GST rate cuts.

• Ashok Leyland is strategically positioned to capitalize on a multi-year commercial vehicle (CV) upcycle in India, driven by an aging fleet, steady economic growth, and sustained infrastructure development.
• The company is aggressively diversifying its revenue streams by strengthening its light commercial vehicle (LCV) portfolio, expanding its international footprint, and growing its non-vehicle businesses, which is expected to reduce earnings cyclicality.
• A forward-looking R&D focus on future-fuel technologies, including a robust electric vehicle (EV) strategy through its subsidiary Switch Mobility and development in LNG and hydrogen, positions the company for long-term, sustainable growth in a transforming industry.

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• Pennar Industries is a diversified engineering company with a strong foothold in high-growth sectors like infrastructure, automotive, and railways, which are benefiting from India’s economic expansion.
• The company has demonstrated a consistent track record of revenue growth and improving profitability, driven by a strategic shift towards higher-margin, value-added products and custom-engineered solutions.
• Key risks include susceptibility to steel price volatility, which constitutes a major portion of raw material costs, and competition from larger integrated steel manufacturers in a low-margin business environment.

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• Strategic Location with DFC Linkage: Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPV) is strategically located on the west coast of India, on a major international maritime trade route. Its connectivity to the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) is a significant catalyst, enhancing its hinterland reach and offering a competitive advantage in logistics efficiency.
• Strong Financials and Shareholder Returns: The company demonstrates robust financial health with consistent revenue growth, stable margins, and an almost debt-free balance sheet. GPPV has a strong track record of returning value to shareholders, evidenced by a high dividend yield and a healthy dividend payout ratio.
• Competitive Pressures and Capacity Constraints: GPPV operates in a highly competitive environment, facing intense rivalry from larger neighboring ports like Mundra and JNPT. While it boasts high operational efficiency, its current scale and capacity are smaller than its main competitors, which could limit market share gains.

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• Front-end UST yields declined yesterday, with the UST curve steepening in continuation of last week’s trend. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.50%, while that of the 10Y declined 1 bp to 4.17%.
• Equities retreated for a second day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.
• New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is well-positioned heading into 2026, as the FOMC has “adjusted interest rates down in a way that we think positions us really well to have these two competing kinds of risks be roughly in balance”. 

• KEI Industries (KEII IN) is a vertically-integrated wires and cables manufacturer with a diversified portfolio spanning low, medium and extra-high-voltage cables, house wires, stainless steel wires and turnkey EPC solutions.
• It operates in three segments- Cable and wire (C&W), stainless steel wire and Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) segment, selling products both domestically as well as in global markets.
• It sports a market capitalization of US$4.3bn and ADTV of ~US$11.4m. In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.

• Strong Growth in a Burgeoning Industry: Latent View Analytics is a pure-play data analytics firm well-positioned to capitalize on the exponential growth of the data analytics market. The global data analytics market was valued at USD 74.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 482.61 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 23.12%. The company has demonstrated a solid track record of revenue growth, with a 3-year CAGR of 27.63%.
• Diversified Client Base and Expanding Verticals: The company serves a blue-chip client base across Technology, Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG), Financial Services, Retail, and Industrials. A key strategic focus is to reduce client concentration and expand into new verticals and geographies, such as the recent push into Latin America, particularly in the financial services sector.
• Premium Valuation Reflects High Growth Expectations: The company trades at a significant premium to its peers, with an EV/Sales multiple of 10.2x and a P/E ratio of 53.5x. This valuation reflects high expectations for future growth, which also presents a key risk if growth fails to meet market expectations.

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• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Opportunity: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• JSW has shown strong growth in generation capacity, with plans to double it to 30GW by 2030. The company is also venturing into ancillaries like battery assembly and hydrogen production. 
• We conservatively estimate FY26 EBITDA at 10,000cr (11% below consensus) with 20% CAGR from capacity expansion (25% CAGR to 30GW) and improving utilisation (35% CAGR in generation).
• We ascribe EV/EBITDA multiple of 8-12x to the thermal business and 12-16x multiple to renewables business to arrive at SOTP valuation of 550-770 by March 2027 vs CMP of 480.

• Despite the broad-based weakness in Indian equity market, insider buying in November 2025 was strong and broad-based.
• We highlight large and small cap companies that experienced significant insider buying during November 2025, as reported on the stock exchanges.
• We also present key sectors which saw insider buying during the month along with names which have moved significantly above the insider buying price.

• Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd (1880671D IN) is part of the Tenneco Group, a U.S.-headquartered global Tier I automotive component supplier.
• It designs and manufactures clean air, powertrain, and suspension solutions for Indian OEMs and export markets.
• Since its listing, the stock is up 19%, but there is still upside potential.

• Wakefit Innovations (1684049D IN) raised US$144m in its India IPO.
• Wakefit Innovations is a direct‑to‑consumer sleep and home‑solutions company, founded in 2016.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• Max India (MAXI IN) , part of the historically successful Max Group, is transitioning into India’s only fully integrated senior care platform, Antara.
• The senior care market is projected to reach USD 33 Bn by 2030 from USD  13 Bn in 2024 driven by nuclear families and increasing affluence among the elderly.
• Key growth levers are the annual 1.5M sq. ft. development target in residences and the goal for AGEasy to reach breakeven by late FY ’27.