This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. GOLD Tactical Outlook: Downside Risk Re-Emerging
- In our last Gold tactical outlook/insight on Jan 26 we signaled Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was massively overbought, the metal started to fall hard the following week.
- The pullback was followed by a furious 2-day rally, and now Gold (GOLD COMDTY) is back to really overbought levels! (at least according to our WEEKLY models).
- We are wondering if Gold (GOLD COMDTY) is about to crash again, if the recent rally was just a dead-cat bounce. It’s an hypothesis worth considering.
2. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Feb 6 Earnings
- On December 10th we published an insight saying that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) was undervalued. The stock rallied from there. After the recent pullback, it could reach 3653-3897.
- Toyota Motor reports earnings results on 6 Feb 2026, read Gaudenz Schneider recent insight for details on the options markets pricing in a big move on earnings-day.
- This insight presents the WEEKLY volatility range for the next few weeks, based on our proprietary quant model.
3. Tencent (700 HK) Top Trades: How Traders Use Diagonal Spreads Ahead of Earnings
- Context: Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy mix and positioning are dissected.
- Highlights: Diagonal Spreads enjoy increasing popularity. The strategy is analyzed with reference to the March earnings event, and current volatility dynamics.
- Why read: This drill-down into calendar strategies sheds light on strategies and positioning ahead of earnings. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
4. Xiaomi (1810 HK): Calendar Spreads and Other Top Trades Ahead of Earnings
- Context: Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: Diagonal Spreads enjoy popularity, accounting for 30% of all trades. Historically low implied volatility favors long volatility positions. Slightly bullish bias.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
5. Pan-Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook After Monday’s Feb 2 Sell-Off
- On Monday February 2 several Asian indices and stocks we cover sold off abruptly (some even violently).
- Here is a tactical analysis of which indices and stocks appear most oversold and/or ready to bounce, all the forecasts are based on our proprietary quantitative models.
- The LONG models we present are up to date after last Friday’s Close, so the prices you see are actionable this week (and the following weeks if the sell-off continues).
6. Tencent (700), Xiaomi (1810), Meituan (3690), and JD.com (9618): Cheap Vol Into Earnings
- Context: This Insight provides volatility analysis for the Hang Seng and eight prominent Hong Kong stocks. Volatility cones provide the framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights: Historically low implied volatility in Meituan (3690 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) offers attractive pre-earnings hedging opportunities.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
7. Nikkei: Assessing Implied Volatility and Market Expectations Into the Election
- We examine the implied volatility setup as well as the markets expectations for 1-day price movement following the election.
- Options positioning indicates increased hedging activity, with Put volume dominating recent Nikkei options flow.
- Return dynamics have shifted for the Nikkei 225, with recent distributions appearing wider and flatter than longer-term norms.
8. Hong Kong February 2026 Monthly Covered Call Report
- Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of February.
- The top 10 provide an average ~6% premium with a potential ~7.6% upside P&L if exercised.
- Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.
9. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Overheated? Our Models Say No
- Last week the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) exploded higher, reaching 26341. Then it close lower at 25693.70. It is not overbought yet, according to our model.
- In this insight we’ll assess the profit target levels reached by the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) on our quantitative model, how far can this short-term uptrend persist, how long.
- The index does not appear to be overbought according to our model and could possibly rally for 2 more weeks before a new pullback sets in.
10. Macro Monthly (February): Gold and Kospi Volatility Highlight Fragile Feb Backdrop
- February volatility dynamics differ meaningfully from January, with historical patterns offering a less supportive backdrop for volatility sellers across several major markets
- Weakness into month end has been a recurring February feature, something to be mindful of following strong January gains.
- Sharp late-month declines in precious metals prices may serve as a cautionary signal for Kospi investors.
