Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Mar 1, 2026

1. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook After IMSC’s March Index Review

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• As discussed in detail by Brian Freitas the IMSC of NSE Indices has announced the results of the March index review on Feb 23rd.
• There are no constituent changes forthe NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) .
• The index is currently in a position from where it could rally higher, but seems to have encountered resistance in the 25700-25800 price area – BEARISH.

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2. NVDA Earnings Preview (Feb 25): Tactical Levels and Implied Range

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• On Dec 1st we posted an insight suggesting NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) was oversold and possibly a BUY. NVDA was trading at 164 when we posted.
• 3 months later the stock is a trading +20% higher from the day we posted: currently priced at 196 at the moment of writing (10.30AM Chicago time on Feb 25th). 
• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report its earnings today after the US market Close. This is a quick insight with minimal comments, pointing out the stock probable targets.

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3. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook: Rally On?

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is rebounding from a small pullback that lasted 2 weeks and probably ended last week (to be confirmed this Friday at Close).
• The stock was a bit oversold (68.5% probability of reversal), after last Friday’s Close, according to our model.
• If the rally continues, our target is 3800 and could be reached in 2-3 weeks total time. More details and analysis in the insight.

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4. NVDA Q4 Earnings Setup: Historically Strong Q4 Moves and Soft Vol Pricing

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Ahead of Q4 earnings, we analyze implied volatility, earnings reactions, and seasonal patterns to assess how the options market is positioned.
• Seasonal analysis highlights distinct fourth quarter behavior, including wider dispersion in post-earnings returns and larger absolute moves. 
• We find a pattern of continued momentum after very strong earnings day price moves. 

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5. US Markets Tactical Outlook: Probabilities, Not Narratives

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• There is a lot of noise swirling around lately, all sorts of narratives trying to explain the  trajectory for S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX).
• We had a look at our WEEKLY quantitative models and the correction that started on Monday appears to match an historical pattern with limited downside (max 2 weeks down). 
• Our models see this pullback ending/reversing latest by the end of next week, reaching supports at/below 6742 for the SPX and 24208 for the NDX. These are short-term WEEKLY forecasts.

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6. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 23 – 27): Muted Index, Undercurrents Building

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Beneath a steady index, internal rotation and dispersion continue to shape the market tone. A visible divide is emerging between hard asset sectors and technology-related names.
• Weekday return patterns offer useful context, even if they ultimately qualify as data mining.
• Volatility is starting to percolate beneath the surface even as implied vols soften on the week.

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7. Australia Single Stock Options (Feb 23–27): Relative Rebound Takes Hold in a Low Correlation Market

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• AS51 pushes to fresh highs with relative performance between AS51 and SPX shifting away from the U.S.
• Market breadth remains mixed despite index gains, highlighting both 2-economy and low correlation themes.
• Low constituent correlation continues to define AS51, reinforcing a highly selective market backdrop.

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8. [High Conviction] Dai-Ichi Life:Post-ZIRP Yield Expansion, ¥800B Equity Divestment Fuel Option Trade

By Jay Cameron, Cameron Design

• The BoJ’s shift from ZIRP is enabling Dai-ichi Life to lock in higher investment yields, expanding their potential interest spread.
• Upscaled divestment of JPY 800B in domestic equities frees up capital for strategic high-return investments and an enhanced shareholder return policy with a planned 50% payout ratio.
• With record adjusted profits and a strong Economic Solvency Ratio, these combined tailwinds create a setup for a leveraged strategy aimed at capturing directional upside.

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9. EQD | Hong Kong March 2026 Monthly Covered Call Report

By Nicholas Pezolano, Newmark Risk

• Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of March.
• The top 10 provide an average ~6.9% premium with a potential ~9.8% upside P&L if exercised.
• Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.

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