This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Maybe Soon Is Time to BUY…
- In our previous insight we correctly forecasted a short-lived, 2-3 weeks relief rally for BYD (1211 HK) , followed by a new downtrend (started this week).
- The stock went into OVERSOLD territory according to our model, this week. It’s however a bit early to BUY, the stock could fall more.
- If BYD reaches 102 next week, or the following week, that would be a very good place to BUY. A catalyst could bring the stock back to 140-150.
2. Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025
- September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.
- Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.
3. Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility: What Cones Reveal in Tencent, HSBC, Meituan & More
- Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights:Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK),Meituan (3690 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), and JD.com (9618 HK) all display historically cheap implied volatility. Read on for trade suggestions.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
4. GOLD Outlook: Still a Good Time to BUY? Or Too Late?
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been flat since April but started to take off after mid-August.
- Question: from a purely tactical perspective, is it still a good time to buy Gold? The precious metal is massively overbought at the moment, according to our model.
- Our tactical forecast: Gold (GOLD COMDTY)could go a bit higher, but it is so overbought that the short-term upside is probably limited.
5. Alibaba (9988 HK): Stock Surges Post-Earnings, Options Market Reprices
- Context:Alibaba (9988 HK) reported Q1 results on 29 Aug. Despite a revenue miss, strong cloud growth and its AI chip announcement drove the stock up double digits.
- Highlight: Implied volatility deflated sharply post-earnings, with the September contract down 8.5% and back months also lower, while skew shifted down in parallel.
- Why it matters: Put the current volatility surface into context. This insight can serve as a case study of how earnings-driven repricing can inform positioning ahead of future events.
6. Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets
- Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.
- Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.
- Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.
7. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus
- Market breadth remained weak as option activity slowed and speculation concerns lingered around speculative trading.
- Option demand cooled, led by waning interest in Calls, while heavyweights in Consumer Discretionary kept overall volumes supported.
- Trading momentum slowed, but sector heavyweights maintained dominance, with implied vols drifting lower across much of the market.
8. S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance
- In our latest ASX200 insight, posted on Aug 22nd, we wrote: “The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally“.
- The rally ended last week, as predicted: the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is falling this week, it has already reached OVERSOLD support levels according to our model.
- Attached you can find an Excel file with all the data (key supp/res level with probabilities, check row # 12), our new forecast in detailed in the insight.
9. Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: September 1 – September 5
- A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.
- OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , BYD (1211 HK) , S&P/ASX 200 , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY)
- OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Nasdaq-100 , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)
