This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Ambuja Cement/ ACC/ Orient Cement Merger: Index Flows
- Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), ACC Ltd (ACC IN) and Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) will be merging to create a pan-India cement giant.
- There are a whole bunch of approvals needed, and the mergers are expected to complete in the next 12 months.
- With the stocks part of different indices, there will be index flows on completion of the merger.
2. Merger Arb Mondays (05 Jan) – ENN, Dongfeng, Jinke, ANE, Mandom, Toyota, Qube, Insignia
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), Humm Group (HUM AU).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP).
3. Alteogen (196170 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer
- On 6 November, Alteogen Inc (196170 KS)‘s Board approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and the listing on the KOSPI market. Shareholders approved on 8 December.
- Alteogen has not yet applied to the KRX for the listing change. While the listing transfer approval had historically taken around 2-3 months, there have been no approvals recently.
- Alteogen will be deleted from the KOSDAQ150 Index on its last trading day and inclusion in the KOSPI200 Index will take place at the next regular rebalance (or earlier).
4. [Japan M&A] Reports of Hisamitsu “Family” MBO at ~¥450bn (Suggests ¥6400) Preview
- A Bloomberg article mid-morning suggests the 53yr old CEO – a member of the founding family of Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) will launch a ~¥450bn MBO with bank financing.
- Revenues are growing. Earnings less so. It’s not well-covered. It’s an old company with LOTS of cross-holdings and cash. The family doesn’t own much but crossholders do.
- Valuation vs Future Earnings are a question. There are some private holdings which may be worth more than their book value but this may be tough to block.
5. Baidu (9888 HK)’s Spin-Off And Listing Of Kunlunxin
- On the 2nd Jan 2026, Baidu (9888 HK) announced the proposed listing of subsidiary Kunlunxin on the HKEx. The Street promptly bumped its fair values. Shares gained a punchy 9.4%.
- Kunlunxin is Baidu’s AI chip subsidiary, held as to ~59.45%. Baidu’s stake is expected to fall to 51% after the spinoff.
- What is Kunlunxin worth? ~US$3bn if using recent founding rounds; up to US$16-US$23bn according to some Street analysts. Baidu’s market cap is ~US$52bn.
6. Recent Narrative Shift on Hynix ADR Issuance: Focus on Tomorrow (Or Today)’s Re-Disclosure
- Since last weekend, the ruling camp signals ADRs aren’t a loophole; value-accretive ADRs using treasury stock can beat straight burns without policy pushback.
- For now, only Hynix’s treasury-to-ADR story resonates with shareholders; near-term, this narrative stays focused on the memory bellwether with a clear value gap vs peers.
- Hynix’s re-disclosure hits by tomorrow (or today after close), likely still “under review,” but the market may read it as an ADR tilt, potentially driving multiple upside—key near-term radar point.
7. Bluescope Steel (BSL AU): Kerry Stokes-Backed SGH’s NBIO Needs More Gruel
- This morning (6th Jan), SGH Limited (SGH AU) and Steel Dynamics (STLD US) (SDI) confirmed they have submitted an NBIO for Bluescope Steel (BSL AU), Australia’s largest steel manufacturer.
- The Kerry Stokes-backed SGH and SDI are offering A$30/share, a 27% premium to undisturbed. And ~18.6x and 9.5x FY25 EV/EBIT and FY25 EV/EBITDA.
- Regulatory clearance should include FIRB and (perhaps) ACCC. SGH’s entrance should smooth over these conditions.
8. [Japan M&A] Tosei & GIC Bid for Office-Heavy Sankei REIT (2972 JP) At 1.15x PNAV
- Today, Tosei Corp (8923 JP) and GIC announced they would launch a TOB for Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), which is end-sponsored by Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP).
- This gets Fuji Media out of a small asset and side business they don’t need, and it clears out a small office-heavy diversified REIT which doesn’t need to exist.
- This is not a bad price. It is not necessarily over the top, but other larger REITs are cheaper. There is some weirdness in holder structure to watch out for.
9. Square Now Top-5 by Float Mkt Cap, Passive Flows in Focus into June 10
- Near to mid term, the key Square vs. Hynix proxy watch is ETF inclusion—but FnGuide and KRX semis ETFs are structurally off-limits without a sector re-tag.
- That leaves TIGER Korea Top 10 and KODEX Top 5 Plus—free-float, mkt-cap ETFs—where Square’s top-10 rank and 67% float turn inclusion from theoretical to tradable.
- TIGER Top 10 is pure float-cap top 10; KODEX Top 5 Plus prioritizes float-cap top 5. Square ranks 4th, qualifying for both, with rebalance at June 10 close.
10. Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): MBO at JPY6,082
- Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) has recommended an MBO at JPY6,082, a 17.0% premium to the last close and in line with Bloomberg’s stated JPY450 billion valuation.
- The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. The offer is struck at the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
- The sheer number of irrevocables and the presence of several cross-holders will aid in deal completion. The tender closes on 19 February.
