This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in Feb/March
- There are 9 companies that listed in August and September 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.
- The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$50.3bn (US$6.45bn) with Zijin Gold making up the bulk of it. Butong and Jiaxin International have a lock-up for pre-IPO investors too.
- The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 29-78% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.
2. [Japan M&A] JX Advanced Metals (5016) And Toho Titanium (5727) To Merge VERY Quickly
- On 25 February, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and subsidiary Toho Titanium (5727 JP) announced they would conduct a scrip merger to be effective in three months.
- Unlike most scrip mergers in Japan in recent years, this time the parent is paying a 50% premium vs last trade.
- There is, however, an interesting quirk to this transaction. It will be super-aggravating to some after what looks like, on the face of it, an OK result.
3. Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Risk/Reward Ahead of the Second Close
- Reuters reports that Elliott has offered to pay around market price to buy Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares from holders who have agreed to tender. The close is 2 March.
- Elliott’s strategy is three-fold: increase its stake without launching an expensive partial offer, ensure the minimum is not met, and ensure Fudosan discloses, at best, a modest increase in acceptances.
- Elliott’s campaign may work too well, and there remains a possibility that the tender offer fails. In such a scenario, the downside to a deal break price is limited.
4. Timing for Samsung Electronics KRW 3.2tn Block: Next Thursday
- Local market now expects the Samsung block to land next Thursday, pushed a week from this Thursday/Friday expectation to avoid overlap with EWY’s 25% reversion rebalance today.
- Hong Ra-hee’s camp and Shinhan Bank face a tight window: mid-April cash settlement needed, avoiding missed 1Q dividends and potential May market pullback pressures.
- 1P discount widened from 20% to ~35%, pre-deal support lifts ords now, but block clearance likely hits ords flows and removes key narrative, making next Thursday critical.
5. Ibiden (4062 JP): Secondary Offering Comes Hot on the Heels of Index Inclusion
- Five banks are looking to sell up to 7.9m shares of Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) in a secondary offering that will raise just short of US$500m.
- Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) is an inclusion to a global index at the close on Friday and passive trackers need to buy over US$900m of stock.
- The stock has run up a lot in the short-term and reversion post index inclusion will be aided by the increased float following the placement.
6. Duzon Bizon’s Massive Tender Offer Drops Today: Checking the Bump-Play Dynamics
- EQT’s SPV is tendering ~18.16 mn shares (~60% of SO) at ₩120K/share, a ~25% premium to Feb 20, targeting full take-private after existing stakes and treasury are carved out.
- Bump-Play angle: ₩120K price is stale from Nov 2025. Strong Q4 reset gives holdout institutions cover to say “no” and push for a higher valuation.
- EQT faces a 95% delist clock; aggressive treasury cancellation risks litigation under the new Commercial Act, so expect more institutions than usual to chase a bump play.
7. Merger Arb Mondays (23 Feb) – Toyota Ind, MCJ, Raksul, Sankei, AJIS, Skyworth, Humm, Bluescope, Qube
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK), Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), Bluescope Steel (BSL AU).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP), BioDlink International (1875 HK), Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), Krosaki Harima (5352 JP).
8. Korean Gov’t Signals Aggressive Push on Anti–Share-Price Suppression Law Today: Trading Setup Check
- The Korean government signaled this morning it will fast-track the “anti share-price suppression” law, moving even faster than expected, with multiple local channels confirming the aggressive push.
- Local desks are aggressively trading this narrative. Many names moved, but with the bill not yet cleared, we should track laggards and under-owned stocks for potential follow-through.
- Local desks are targeting liquid stocks (PBR ≤0.8, treasury ≥10%), with buybacks as a direct re-rating tool. Top names are ranked by PBR undervaluation and treasury holdings.
9. [Japan Event] Itochu Partial Tender for 13+% of Sun Frontier Fudosan (8934). Tiny Premium. No Min.
- Today, Sun Frontier Fudousan (8934 JP) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) signed a capital alliance. As part of that, Itochu is buying up to 6.657mm shares in a partial tender.
- It is also buying 5.5mm shares at a discount in a 3rd party placement. Advantage Partners will convert and tender some of its CB. Itochu will own 15-20+% post-deal.
- This is Itochu getting into a new position. It’s a new career being made. It is possibly a precursor to buying out the founder in a couple of years.
10. [Japan M&A] Itochu Buys Out Itochu Shokuhin (2692) Cheaply as Crossholders Get It Over The Line
- Today during market hours, the Nikkei released a headline saying Itochu Corp (8001 JP) would buy out 52.5% sub Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP) at a tiny premium.
- Post-Close, it was confirmed. Tiny premium. Low multiple. Kind of insulting assumptions. But that is par for the course for an Itochu takeover of a subsidiary.
- This gets done because Itochu + crossholders own 70%. Tough to see an activist effort because one can’t join in the back end.
