Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TSMC News: Kumamoto Postponed, Maybe Germany Too. Arizona Accelerating. N2 Yield Rates.

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. </li>
<li>It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip's performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. </li>
<li>TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It's already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.</li>
</ul>


A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. 
It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip's performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. 
TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It's already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.


TSMCのウェハ価格は各ノード（N2-A16-A14）ごとに約30～40％上昇し、最終的には需要を制限することになる