Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

We have heard comments from veteran technical analysts who have become bewildered by the market’s action. The word “unprecedented” is often used.We beg to differ. The violence of the sell-off, and subsequent rebound, is not an unprecedented event. Recall the NASDAQ top of 2000. The NASDAQ 100 fell -39.8% from its March 2000 high, and rebounded 40.1% to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in just four months. The index proceeded to lose -49.7% in that year, and ultimately -80.8% at the 2002 bottom, all from the July reaction high.In the past, we outlined our concerns about the stock market (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/why-the-s-p-500-hasn-t-seen-its-final-lows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Why the S&amp;P 500 Hasn’t Seen Its Final Lows</a>). This week, we register additional concerns, mainly from a technical analysis perspective.There is little question that this is a recession. Recessionary bear markets take a long time to resolve, largely because of the technical and financial damage suffered in the downturn. As the macro and fundamental problems and uncertainties resolve themselves over the course of the downturn, that’s the mechanism how the stock market returns to retest its initial lows after the first reflex rally.Our interpretation of current technical patterns call for a retest of the March lows at some point in the future. Depending on the nature of the fundamental and financial damage, the retest of the lows may not necessarily be successful.This is the process of how a bear market bottoms. We have only undergone the first stage of the decline.

We have heard comments from veteran technical analysts who have become bewildered by the market’s action. The word “unprecedented” is often used.We beg to differ. The violence of the sell-off, and subsequent rebound, is not an unprecedented event. Recall the NASDAQ top of 2000. The NASDAQ 100 fell -39.8% from its March 2000 high, and rebounded 40.1% to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in just four months. The index proceeded to lose -49.7% in that year, and ultimately -80.8% at the 2002 bottom, all from the July reaction high.In the past, we outlined our concerns about the stock market (see Why the S&amp;P 500 Hasn’t Seen Its Final Lows). This week, we register additional concerns, mainly from a technical analysis perspective.There is little question that this is a recession. Recessionary bear markets take a long time to resolve, largely because of the technical and financial damage suffered in the downturn. As the macro and fundamental problems and uncertainties resolve themselves over the course of the downturn, that’s the mechanism how the stock market returns to retest its initial lows after the first reflex rally.Our interpretation of current technical patterns call for a retest of the March lows at some point in the future. Depending on the nature of the fundamental and financial damage, the retest of the lows may not necessarily be successful.This is the process of how a bear market bottoms. We have only undergone the first stage of the decline.

이 변동성이 전례 없는 것은 아닌 이유