Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets.</li><li>With the recent introduction of private equity investments for retail investors in my home country of Germany, I’ve been repeatedly approached by friends and family about my opinion on these products.</li><li>In Germany, two neo-brokers, LIQID and Trade Republic, recently introduced private equity (PE) investments for retail investors starting from as little as €1 per trade (in the case of Trade Republic), while marketing returns between 12% and 14% annually with low volatility.</li></ul>

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets.With the recent introduction of private equity investments for retail investors in my home country of Germany, I’ve been repeatedly approached by friends and family about my opinion on these products.In Germany, two neo-brokers, LIQID and Trade Republic, recently introduced private equity (PE) investments for retail investors starting from as little as €1 per trade (in the case of Trade Republic), while marketing returns between 12% and 14% annually with low volatility.

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

<ul>
<li>First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB (AUB AU)</a>, an insurance "matchmaker": <a href="https://skr.ma/J2CwJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)</a>. Talks <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251201/pdf/06sr2bsh6yv802.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ceased</a> this week. </li>
<li>Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.</li>
<li>Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. </li>
</ul>


First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for AUB (AUB AU), an insurance "matchmaker": CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU). Talks ceased this week. 
Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, Steadfast (SDF AU), is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.
Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. 


Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Futu Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an online brokerage platform that enables individual investors to trade in listed stocks. Futu Holdings serves customers in the United States, China, and Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>FUTU’s platform is already scaled and profitable, with strong client growth, sticky assets, and expanding yields from cash and margin balances.</li>
<li>Crypto optionality is real but not fully in consensus. The full license could transform revenue mix in 2026-27 significantly, with margin upside.</li>
<li>At 20x FY2 P/E, even though its peak of its range, we think the valuation doesn’t reflect the potential impact on revenues from crypto. We believe consensus is 10-15% short.</li>
</ul>


FUTU’s platform is already scaled and profitable, with strong client growth, sticky assets, and expanding yields from cash and margin balances.
Crypto optionality is real but not fully in consensus. The full license could transform revenue mix in 2026-27 significantly, with margin upside.
At 20x FY2 P/E, even though its peak of its range, we think the valuation doesn’t reflect the potential impact on revenues from crypto. We believe consensus is 10-15% short.


FUTU: Strong Traction Expected from Crypto Regulatory Push in HK and ASEAN

<ul>
<li>FUTU's risk-reward is asymmetric:  Structurally low valuation, active consensus upgrades and a near-term catalyst (HK crypto VATP license), which can boost further upgrades (2026e) sets up a compelling long entry.</li>
<li>HK-VATP enables FUTU to expand its crypto related revenues, product offerings and margins, and remove third-party dependency. With crypto &lt;2% assets, this new earnings leg is entirely absent from consensus.</li>
<li>FUTU’s pullback to ~15.6x FY2 P/E puts it at the bottom of a ~15x-25x - reasonable valuation band. With upgrades and catalysts ahead, it stands as a strong rerating candidate.</li>
</ul>


FUTU's risk-reward is asymmetric:  Structurally low valuation, active consensus upgrades and a near-term catalyst (HK crypto VATP license), which can boost further upgrades (2026e) sets up a compelling long entry.
HK-VATP enables FUTU to expand its crypto related revenues, product offerings and margins, and remove third-party dependency. With crypto &lt;2% assets, this new earnings leg is entirely absent from consensus.
FUTU’s pullback to ~15.6x FY2 P/E puts it at the bottom of a ~15x-25x - reasonable valuation band. With upgrades and catalysts ahead, it stands as a strong rerating candidate.


2026 High Conviction Idea - FUTU US - 3Q25 Beat and Bottom-Of-Range Valuation Creates Strong Upside

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Basic-Fit hosted a session to provide an update on the Clever Fit acquisition, that was announced at the end of October and completed two weeks later.</li>
<li>At its upcoming CMD, to be hosted on 20 April of next year, the company will provide a detailed update on the acquisition.</li>
<li>At yesterday’s update, Basic-Fit shared some light on the German market and the savings it expects</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Basic-Fit hosted a session to provide an update on the Clever Fit acquisition, that was announced at the end of October and completed two weeks later.
At its upcoming CMD, to be hosted on 20 April of next year, the company will provide a detailed update on the acquisition.
At yesterday’s update, Basic-Fit shared some light on the German market and the savings it expects


Financials
Follow the money trail

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets. With the recent introduction of private equity investments...

Contrarian Cashflows

FUTU: Strong Traction Expected from Crypto Regulatory Push in HK and ASEAN

We re-iterated our bullish position on FUTU in a new note. FUTU's risk-reward is asymmetric: The combination of a structurally low valuation,...

Raj S, CA, CFA

2026 High Conviction Idea - FUTU US - 3Q25 Beat and Bottom-Of-Range Valuation Creates Strong Upside

2026 High Conviction: FUTU US risk-reward is asymmetric: Structurally low valuation, consensus upgrades post 3Q25 and a near-term catalyst (crypto...

Raj S, CA, CFA

What's News in Amsterdam

Yesterday, Basic-Fit hosted a session to provide an update on the Clever Fit acquisition, that was announced at the end of October and completed...

The IDEA!

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets. With the recent introduction of private equity investments...

Contrarian Cashflows

Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

There is, as yet, no Offer. Steadfast's share price has failed to recover from the internal complaint. EQTCVC walking from AUB does no favours....

David Blennerhassett

FUTU: Strong Traction Expected from Crypto Regulatory Push in HK and ASEAN

We re-iterated our bullish position on FUTU in a new note. FUTU's risk-reward is asymmetric: The combination of a structurally low valuation,...

Raj S, CA, CFA

2026 High Conviction Idea - FUTU US - 3Q25 Beat and Bottom-Of-Range Valuation Creates Strong Upside

2026 High Conviction: FUTU US risk-reward is asymmetric: Structurally low valuation, consensus upgrades post 3Q25 and a near-term catalyst (crypto...

Raj S, CA, CFA

What's News in Amsterdam

Yesterday, Basic-Fit hosted a session to provide an update on the Clever Fit acquisition, that was announced at the end of October and completed...

The IDEA!