Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>20 Trillion RMB Vaporized: Wealth evaporated via marginal pricing. Physical cash is permanently trapped in non-yielding municipal concrete, structurally destroying the foundation of middle-class retail consumption.</li>
<li>The Full-Recourse Trap: Draconian mortgage laws and severe social blacklists force panicked household deleveraging, locking China into a permanent deflationary balance sheet recession with no exit mechanism.</li>
<li>SHORT Longfor Group (960 HK): The private survivor is a value trap masking negative development margins, shrinking cash flows, and severe exposure to a retail consumption downgrade.</li>
</ul>


20 Trillion RMB Vaporized: Wealth evaporated via marginal pricing. Physical cash is permanently trapped in non-yielding municipal concrete, structurally destroying the foundation of middle-class retail consumption.
The Full-Recourse Trap: Draconian mortgage laws and severe social blacklists force panicked household deleveraging, locking China into a permanent deflationary balance sheet recession with no exit mechanism.
SHORT Longfor Group (960 HK): The private survivor is a value trap masking negative development margins, shrinking cash flows, and severe exposure to a retail consumption downgrade.


Anatomy of an Implosion: Recourse Traps, Capital Destruction & The Longfor Short

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Legend Holdings is a diversified investment holding group operating through two main segments: Diversified-industries Operation and Industrial Incubations and Investments. Its strategic investments span IT, financial services, innovative consumption and services, agriculture and food, and advanced manufacturing and new materials, while its financial investments cover angel, venture capital, and private equity. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-holdings-corporation-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings (3396 HK)</a> is seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Legend and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Legend Holdings (3396 HK) is seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn.
Preceding my comments on Legend and Lenovo (992 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Legend Launches Sale Of Banque Internationale À Luxembourg Stake

Equity Bottom-Up

Henderson Land Development / Equity Bottom-Up

Henderson Land Development is a leading property developer with core businesses in property development, property investment, project management, construction, property management, and financial services. The company creates high-quality new homes and commercial developments, including city landmarks such as The Henderson and the International Finance Centre complex in Hong Kong, and World Financial Centre (WFC) in Beijing. It was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>Policy Pivot: The 2026 Policy Address prioritizes long-term supply and public housing, heavily favouring Northern Metropolis infrastructure over short-term mass-market property stimulus.</li>
<li>Sector Impact: Mass-market buyers struggle under 50% DSR caps, while luxury inventory and commercial landlords benefit from targeted capital migration and stable yields.</li>
<li>Actionable Trade: Buy Henderson Land (0012.HK). Its 45m sq ft agricultural land bank captures massive Northern Metropolis monetization, unlocking deep Sum-of-the-Parts value.</li>
</ul>


Policy Pivot: The 2026 Policy Address prioritizes long-term supply and public housing, heavily favouring Northern Metropolis infrastructure over short-term mass-market property stimulus.
Sector Impact: Mass-market buyers struggle under 50% DSR caps, while luxury inventory and commercial landlords benefit from targeted capital migration and stable yields.
Actionable Trade: Buy Henderson Land (0012.HK). Its 45m sq ft agricultural land bank captures massive Northern Metropolis monetization, unlocking deep Sum-of-the-Parts value.


HK Property Arbitrage: Unlocking Henderson Land's Hidden Northern Metropolis Goldmine

Carnaby Resources Ltd provides mining services. The Company offers mineral exploration, project development, and finance services. Carnaby Resources serves customers in Australia.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27th July, gold/copper exploration play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a> entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Evolution offered  0.0682 new shares for each Carnaby share, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.77/share, a 60.4% premium. Post merger, Carnaby shareholders would hold ~0.9% in the enlarged entity.</li>
<li>Carnaby's board unanimously support terms. Directors hold 7.3%. Retail pushback should be limited: scrip terms are now up ~41% since the Offer was announced.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27th July, gold/copper exploration play Carnaby Resources (CNB AU) entered into a Scheme with Evolution Mining (EVN AU).
Evolution offered  0.0682 new shares for each Carnaby share, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.77/share, a 60.4% premium. Post merger, Carnaby shareholders would hold ~0.9% in the enlarged entity.
Carnaby's board unanimously support terms. Directors hold 7.3%. Retail pushback should be limited: scrip terms are now up ~41% since the Offer was announced.


Retail Pushback Not Large/Loud Enough To Threaten Evolution's Offer For Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)

Swire Pacific is a Hong Kong-based international conglomerate with diversified interests in property, aviation, beverages, and trading & industrials. It develops and operates mixed-use properties, holds stakes in airlines and aircraft engineering, is a major Coca-Cola bottler, and engages in various trading and industrial activities. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1816.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-limited-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a>'s 1H26 reported profit was HK$6.8bn versus HK$815mn in 1H25.</li>
<li>83%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> reported profit of HK$3.6bn vs. a loss of HK$1.2bn in 1H25. 45.12%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> reported a 71% increase in underlying profit of HK$6.2bn.</li>
<li>Note: short interest in Cathay, one the best performing global airlines over the past year (in terms of share price), has picked up since the end of May. </li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s 1H26 reported profit was HK$6.8bn versus HK$815mn in 1H25.
83%-Held Swire Properties (1972 HK) reported profit of HK$3.6bn vs. a loss of HK$1.2bn in 1H25. 45.12%-held Cathay Pacific (293 HK) reported a 71% increase in underlying profit of HK$6.2bn.
Note: short interest in Cathay, one the best performing global airlines over the past year (in terms of share price), has picked up since the end of May. 


On Swire (19 HK)'s 2026 Interim Results. Still Inexpensive

Research on Long and Short Asian Largecap Ideas

Long and Short Ideas on Asian Largecaps
Research on Long and Short Asian Largecap Ideas

Anatomy of an Implosion: Recourse Traps, Capital Destruction & The Longfor Short

20 Trillion RMB Vaporized: Wealth evaporated. Physical cash is permanently trapped in non-yielding municipal concrete, structurally destroying the...

Jacob Cheng

StubWorld: Legend Launches Sale Of Banque Internationale À Luxembourg Stake

Legend remains deeply valued. Look to go Long Legend, Short Lenovo (& hedge out the rump with a Euro bank + large fruit supply-chain companies); or...

David Blennerhassett

HK Property Arbitrage: Unlocking Henderson Land's Hidden Northern Metropolis Goldmine

Policy Pivot: The 2026 Policy Address prioritizes long-term supply and public housing, heavily favouring Northern Metropolis infrastructure over...

Jacob Cheng

Retail Pushback Not Large/Loud Enough To Threaten Evolution's Offer For Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)

A clean merger. I don't see retail investors disrupting the deal. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.6%/22.7%, assuming mid-Nov completion....

David Blennerhassett

On Swire (19 HK)'s 2026 Interim Results. Still Inexpensive

Despite the elevated implied stub, at 0.34x forward P/B, I still like Swire Pac. You could set up the stub or simply go outright long in Swire Pac...

David Blennerhassett