Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Singapore’s stunning economic performance this year, led by strong exports and resilient domestic consumption, masks concerns over the impact of AI, tariffs and other challenges. </li>
<li>Government efforts to hedge industrial bets and trade relations, as well as enhance indigenous capacity by reallocating resources, provide some buffer against these issues. </li>
<li>Yet, the volatility of flows that comes with being a hub and the instability of the South China Sea are deeply intertwined with Singapore’s economic model. </li>
</ul>


Singapore’s stunning economic performance this year, led by strong exports and resilient domestic consumption, masks concerns over the impact of AI, tariffs and other challenges. 
Government efforts to hedge industrial bets and trade relations, as well as enhance indigenous capacity by reallocating resources, provide some buffer against these issues. 
Yet, the volatility of flows that comes with being a hub and the instability of the South China Sea are deeply intertwined with Singapore’s economic model. 


Singapore Economics: Strategic Responses to a Changing Global Order

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.</li><li>Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.</li><li>Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.</li></ul><p></p>

CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.

Market Strategist, RW Advisory

Ron William

Market Strategist

RW Advisory

RW Advisory, founded by Ron William, a market strategist with 20+ years of experience, offers macro/tactical research and advisory to a wide range of financial institutions.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. </li>
<li>Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. </li>
<li>Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.</li>
</ul>


US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. 
Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. 
Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.


Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

<ul><li>The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.</li><li>A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.</li><li>Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.</li></ul><p></p>

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

<ul>
<li>This neat and tidy method can deliver crisis protection and smoother returns to your portfolio, using just four ETFs and a once-a-month adjustment</li>
<li>When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. </li>
<li>But sometimes the smartest move is also the simplest: following the trend. Here’s a neat and tidy way to keep your portfolio in line with where the prices are heading.</li>
</ul>


This neat and tidy method can deliver crisis protection and smoother returns to your portfolio, using just four ETFs and a once-a-month adjustment
When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. 
But sometimes the smartest move is also the simplest: following the trend. Here’s a neat and tidy way to keep your portfolio in line with where the prices are heading.


The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works

Macro
Macro Insights

Singapore Economics: Strategic Responses to a Changing Global Order

Singapore's strong economic performance is overshadowed by concerns over AI, tariffs, and other challenges, but government efforts provide some...

Manu Bhaskaran

BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives

CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break...

Phil Rush

Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

US equities weaken as AI leaders unwind; volatility rises amid late-cycle pressures. Gold holds, growth falters. Discipline, diversification, and...

Ron William

Activity Thaws Into Winter

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to...

Phil Rush

The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works

When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. But sometimes the smartest move is...

Finimize Research

Singapore Economics: Strategic Responses to a Changing Global Order

​Singapore's strong economic performance is overshadowed by concerns over AI, tariffs, and other challenges, but government efforts provide some...

Manu Bhaskaran

BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives

CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break...

Phil Rush

Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

US equities weaken as AI leaders unwind; volatility rises amid late-cycle pressures. Gold holds, growth falters. Discipline, diversification, and...

Ron William

Activity Thaws Into Winter

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to...

Phil Rush

The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works

When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about. But sometimes the smartest move is...

Finimize Research

Singapore's strong economic performance is overshadowed by concerns over AI, tariffs, and other challenges, but government efforts provide some...