AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Monetary Authority of Singapore held the S$NEER band’s slope, width and centre, surprising 17 of 20 economists who expected a steeper appreciation path.</li>
<li>The hold raises the bar for further tightening, but energy, food and AI-led wage pressures could still force a January move.</li>
<li>Easing inflation and a shrinking output gap favour an extended pause in the exchange-rate appreciation policy, albeit with risks skewed to another steepening in January.</li>
</ul>


The Monetary Authority of Singapore held the S$NEER band’s slope, width and centre, surprising 17 of 20 economists who expected a steeper appreciation path.
The hold raises the bar for further tightening, but energy, food and AI-led wage pressures could still force a January move.
Easing inflation and a shrinking output gap favour an extended pause in the exchange-rate appreciation policy, albeit with risks skewed to another steepening in January.


Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<ul>
<li>US inflation exceeded the final consensus for September, but by a margin that was too marginal to seem significant. Underlying impulses were also stable at excessive levels.</li>
<li>The cumulative news is much more substantial, with the 36bp rise in the headline at odds with a month-ago consensus for no change. Pressure to hike again is growing.</li>
<li>We don’t see this upside as sufficient to overcome recent cautious guidance and the downside labour market news, so we still see the Fed waiting to hike until December.</li>
</ul>


US inflation exceeded the final consensus for September, but by a margin that was too marginal to seem significant. Underlying impulses were also stable at excessive levels.
The cumulative news is much more substantial, with the 36bp rise in the headline at odds with a month-ago consensus for no change. Pressure to hike again is growing.
We don’t see this upside as sufficient to overcome recent cautious guidance and the downside labour market news, so we still see the Fed waiting to hike until December.


Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>Fiscal consolidation in 2026 was stalled, as increased spending on energy subsidies was only partially offset by petroleum and tax revenue windfalls. </li>
<li>While the macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the budget are credible, the reduction in the deficit ratio is largely driven by nominal growth rather than cash consolidation.</li>
<li>The fiscal rules, however, are slipping. A 3.0% deficit target is no longer achievable, and debt is stuck above the statutory target. </li>
</ul>


Fiscal consolidation in 2026 was stalled, as increased spending on energy subsidies was only partially offset by petroleum and tax revenue windfalls. 
While the macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the budget are credible, the reduction in the deficit ratio is largely driven by nominal growth rather than cash consolidation.
The fiscal rules, however, are slipping. A 3.0% deficit target is no longer achievable, and debt is stuck above the statutory target. 


Malaysia Economics: Fiscal Consolidation Stalls in Pre-Election Budget

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI is rolling over again, with foreign selling accelerating and technical indicators weakening.  Rising bond yields and massive retail losses from leveraged ETFs are adding to selling pressure.</li>
<li>The dominant technical picture is bearish, with the index in a confirmed downtrend across all major timeframes.  Momentum and trend indicators, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci levels are breaking down simultaneously.</li>
<li>The weight of evidence strongly supports the view that, for institutional allocators with risk management constraints, Korea is materially less investable today than at any point in the past decade.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI is rolling over again, with foreign selling accelerating and technical indicators weakening.  Rising bond yields and massive retail losses from leveraged ETFs are adding to selling pressure.
The dominant technical picture is bearish, with the index in a confirmed downtrend across all major timeframes.  Momentum and trend indicators, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci levels are breaking down simultaneously.
The weight of evidence strongly supports the view that, for institutional allocators with risk management constraints, Korea is materially less investable today than at any point in the past decade.


KOSPI CRASHING AGAIN: S.O.S. - Save Our Seouls !!

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The post-pandemic return of inflation and higher interest rates has had negative implications for US housing affordability. Rising mortgage rates since March have further dented the prospects for improved affordability.</li>
<li>Housing affordability has deteriorated to its lowest level since the 1980s. Apart from lower interest rates, better affordability will require future household income gains persistently outstripping home price appreciation.</li>
<li>Full federal government guarantees on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities would enhance housing affordability. Mortgage buydowns by homebuilders should be eliminated because they artificially boost market-clearing prices . </li>
</ul>


The post-pandemic return of inflation and higher interest rates has had negative implications for US housing affordability. Rising mortgage rates since March have further dented the prospects for improved affordability.
Housing affordability has deteriorated to its lowest level since the 1980s. Apart from lower interest rates, better affordability will require future household income gains persistently outstripping home price appreciation.
Full federal government guarantees on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities would enhance housing affordability. Mortgage buydowns by homebuilders should be eliminated because they artificially boost market-clearing prices . 


US Housing: The Lingering Curse of Poor Affordability Intensifies

Macro
Macro Insights

MAS Sets a Higher Bar

MAS’s surprise hold raises the bar for more tightening, but persistent energy, food or AI-led wage pressures could still force action in January.

Heteronomics AI

US: Inflating a December Hike

US inflation’s cumulative rise is building pressure for another Fed hike, but cautious guidance and weaker labour data should delay action until...

Phil Rush

Malaysia Economics: Fiscal Consolidation Stalls in Pre-Election Budget

Malaysia's federal budget for 2027 features tax cuts and spending rises that stall the pace of fiscal repair that, while not destabilising, limits...

Manu Bhaskaran

KOSPI CRASHING AGAIN: S.O.S. - Save Our Seouls !!

The KOSPI is rolling over again, with foreign selling accelerating and technical indicators weakening. Rising bond yields and massive retail...

David Mudd

US Housing: The Lingering Curse of Poor Affordability Intensifies

Housing affordability has fallen to its lowest level since the 1980s, largely due to rising mortgage rates and home prices. Homebuilder buydowns...

DeSaque Macro Research