Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)</a> price ratio is more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)</a>  targets a 6% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) price ratio is more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) and short Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)  targets a 6% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) Vs Punjab National Bank (PNB IN): A Third Signal, A 6% Target

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>NIMs Remain Within Guidance; Pricing Discipline Continues: In Q1, BoB’s core NIMs (adj for tax refunds) contracted to 2.77% vs 2.83-2.84% QoQ.</li><li>Domestic NIMs continue to remain resilient at 2.9+%, while international margins remain structurally lower. BoB is consciously migrating its corporate book from finely-priced non-MCLR loans to MCLR-linked pricing.</li><li>While bulk deposit rates were elevated, the announcement of the FCNR (B) scheme has resulted in easing off of these rates. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIMs Remain Within Guidance; Pricing Discipline Continues: In Q1, BoB’s core NIMs (adj for tax refunds) contracted to 2.77% vs 2.83-2.84% QoQ.Domestic NIMs continue to remain resilient at 2.9+%, while international margins remain structurally lower. BoB is consciously migrating its corporate book from finely-priced non-MCLR loans to MCLR-linked pricing.While bulk deposit rates were elevated, the announcement of the FCNR (B) scheme has resulted in easing off of these rates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank of Baroda - One-Time Settlement Dents Earnings

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)</a> reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.</li>
<li>Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.</li>
<li>Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)),</a>or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY) reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.
Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.
Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (Federal Bank (FB IN)),or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.


EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> is the best-performing PSU bank in India and shows clear convergence with private peers across fundamental metrics beyond what its valuations might suggest</li>
<li>Medium-Term ROE Forecast of 16% to 18% and loan growth forecast of 14% to 16%; ROA ~1.2% consistently; Strong fee income; successful cross-selling through subsidiaries; Strong asset quality.
</li>
<li>
 P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e, compared private peers’ valuations of 2.5x to 3.0x. SBIN can potentially re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~35% upside).</li>
</ul>



State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) is the best-performing PSU bank in India and shows clear convergence with private peers across fundamental metrics beyond what its valuations might suggest
Medium-Term ROE Forecast of 16% to 18% and loan growth forecast of 14% to 16%; ROA ~1.2% consistently; Strong fee income; successful cross-selling through subsidiaries; Strong asset quality.


 P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e, compared private peers’ valuations of 2.5x to 3.0x. SBIN can potentially re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~35% upside).


State Bank Of India (SBIN IN): Initiation -  Convergence with Private Peers, Poised for Re-Rating

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 0.4% MDR is not pure fintech revenue. Exemptions, fee-sharing, merchant behaviour and competitive incentives will determine how much reaches profits.</li>
<li>Paytm is the strongest listed beneficiary: Its presence across consumer UPI and merchant acquiring allows it to earn from both sides of eligible transactions.</li>
<li>Pine Labs, MobiKwik benefit differently: Pine Labs gains through merchant acquiring, while MobiKwik’s upside depends on scaling UPI volumes and merchant transactions.</li>
</ul>


The 0.4% MDR is not pure fintech revenue. Exemptions, fee-sharing, merchant behaviour and competitive incentives will determine how much reaches profits.
Paytm is the strongest listed beneficiary: Its presence across consumer UPI and merchant acquiring allows it to earn from both sides of eligible transactions.
Pine Labs, MobiKwik benefit differently: Pine Labs gains through merchant acquiring, while MobiKwik’s upside depends on scaling UPI volumes and merchant transactions.


How MDR Will Impact Paytm, Pinelabs, MobiKwik?

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)