Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. </li>
<li>Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. </li>
<li>Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. </li>
</ul>


Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. 
Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. 
Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. 


US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Monitoring the recent upswing in the US market while awaiting the election results and decisions from the Fed The recent surge in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the rise in U.S.</li><li>Treasury yields can be largely attributed to the interplay of two main factors: (1) reflation riskwhich may slow the pace of rate cuts, and (2) the depreciation of key DXY basket currencies-particularly the Euro and Canadian Dollar.</li><li>Reflation risk is influenced by factors such as China’s stimulus measures, escalating Israel-Iran tensions, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and increased odds of a Trump election win which may potentially push larger deficit.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monitoring the recent upswing in the US market while awaiting the election results and decisions from the Fed The recent surge in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the rise in U.S.Treasury yields can be largely attributed to the interplay of two main factors: (1) reflation riskwhich may slow the pace of rate cuts, and (2) the depreciation of key DXY basket currencies-particularly the Euro and Canadian Dollar.Reflation risk is influenced by factors such as China’s stimulus measures, escalating Israel-Iran tensions, the resilience of the U.S. economy, and increased odds of a Trump election win which may potentially push larger deficit.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research October 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>There is a case for pausing Fed policy rate cuts in Q4 as long as economic growth remains above-trend. Treasury investors are less enthusiastic about easier policy settings. </li>
<li>Falling inflation and weaker overseas economic growth create scope for foreign central banks to ease more aggressively than the Fed, supporting US dollar appreciation.</li>
<li>Continued high levels of US profitability and the prospect of  lower corporate tax rates under a new Trump presidency could produce dollar appreciation similar to what occurred in 2018 H2.   </li>
</ul>


There is a case for pausing Fed policy rate cuts in Q4 as long as economic growth remains above-trend. Treasury investors are less enthusiastic about easier policy settings. 
Falling inflation and weaker overseas economic growth create scope for foreign central banks to ease more aggressively than the Fed, supporting US dollar appreciation.
Continued high levels of US profitability and the prospect of  lower corporate tax rates under a new Trump presidency could produce dollar appreciation similar to what occurred in 2018 H2.   


US Dollar Outlook: Underpinned by Potential Central Bank Divergence and Robust Corporate Performance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

<ul><li>On October 24, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced its ready-to-sell USD (spot) to commercial banks at 25,450.</li><li>We believe the SBV’s latest move aims to ease sentiment in the FX market given rising pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in recent weeks.</li><li>Rising DXY and domestic demand place pressure on FX US inflation cooled down in recent months and a 50-bps policy rate cut announced by the Fed in its September meeting helped to support the VND to appreciate 1.5% against the USD in August and 1.2% in September.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

On October 24, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced its ready-to-sell USD (spot) to commercial banks at 25,450.We believe the SBV’s latest move aims to ease sentiment in the FX market given rising pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in recent weeks.Rising DXY and domestic demand place pressure on FX US inflation cooled down in recent months and a 50-bps policy rate cut announced by the Fed in its September meeting helped to support the VND to appreciate 1.5% against the USD in August and 1.2% in September.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam Macro Note - SBV announces readiness to sell USD

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research October 2024

Monitoring the recent upswing in the US market while awaiting the election results and decisions from the Fed The recent surge in the U.S. Dollar...

BRI Danareksa Research

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

US Dollar Outlook: Underpinned by Potential Central Bank Divergence and Robust Corporate Performance

The dollar has appreciated since the Fed started its easing cycle. Weaker overseas economic conditions and respectable US corporate profit...

DeSaque Macro Research

Vietnam Macro Note - SBV announces readiness to sell USD

We believe the SBV’s latest move aims to ease sentiment in the FX market given rising pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in recent weeks.

Vietcap

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

​Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research October 2024

Monitoring the recent upswing in the US market while awaiting the election results and decisions from the Fed The recent surge in the U.S. Dollar...

BRI Danareksa Research

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

US Dollar Outlook: Underpinned by Potential Central Bank Divergence and Robust Corporate Performance

The dollar has appreciated since the Fed started its easing cycle. Weaker overseas economic conditions and respectable US corporate profit...

DeSaque Macro Research

Vietnam Macro Note - SBV announces readiness to sell USD

We believe the SBV’s latest move aims to ease sentiment in the FX market given rising pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in recent weeks.

Vietcap

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...