External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.</li><li>The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.</li><li>The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen asthe BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen asthe BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The Conflation of Currency Risk and Fiscal Frailty

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. </li>
<li>Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.</li>
<li>Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. 
Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.
Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Steno Research PCA model Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model to analyze assets across financial markets provides a powerful framework for investment decisions.</li><li>By mapping out the macro anatomy of a given asset, PCA identifies key trends and underlying patterns that influence price fluctuations and market dynamics.</li><li>In this process, we have defined what we see as the most important global macro factors, ensuring that our analysis is comprehensive and targeted.</li></ul>

Steno Research PCA model Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model to analyze assets across financial markets provides a powerful framework for investment decisions.By mapping out the macro anatomy of a given asset, PCA identifies key trends and underlying patterns that influence price fluctuations and market dynamics.In this process, we have defined what we see as the most important global macro factors, ensuring that our analysis is comprehensive and targeted.

Quant Signals: PCA model and Backtesting Features

<ul>
<li>The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs</li>
<li>All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.


New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Macro Strategy: The Conflation of Currency Risk and Fiscal Frailty

The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Commodity Comeback

S&P 5700 year-end target remains intact after breakout, copper and silver rally expected as dollar falls, semis leading tech with software to follow.

Douglas Busch

Quant Signals: PCA model and Backtesting Features

Steno Research PCA model Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model to analyze assets across financial markets provides a powerful framework...

Steno Research

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macro Strategy: The Conflation of Currency Risk and Fiscal Frailty

The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Commodity Comeback

​S&P 5700 year-end target remains intact after breakout, copper and silver rally expected as dollar falls, semis leading tech with software to follow.

Douglas Busch

Quant Signals: PCA model and Backtesting Features

Steno Research PCA model Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model to analyze assets across financial markets provides a powerful framework...

Steno Research

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

S&P 5700 year-end target remains intact after breakout, copper and silver rally expected as dollar falls, semis leading tech with software to follow.