Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.</li>
<li>Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.</li>
<li>Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.</li>
</ul>


CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.
Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.
Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.


Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DXY weakened by 0.8%, Yen surges by 6%, and Euro by 0.75%. Recession fears, BoJ rate hikes and subsequent unwind of the yen carry trade drove forex market volatility.</li>
<li>Implied volatility (IV) for JPY options increased sharply from early July, with a surge following the BoJ rate hike and non-farm payroll report. EUR options IV reached a one-month. </li>
<li>Euro options saw a large buildup of calls for near-term expiries and a significant increase in puts for September expiries, reflecting mixed market sentiment.</li>
</ul>


DXY weakened by 0.8%, Yen surges by 6%, and Euro by 0.75%. Recession fears, BoJ rate hikes and subsequent unwind of the yen carry trade drove forex market volatility.
Implied volatility (IV) for JPY options increased sharply from early July, with a surge following the BoJ rate hike and non-farm payroll report. EUR options IV reached a one-month. 
Euro options saw a large buildup of calls for near-term expiries and a significant increase in puts for September expiries, reflecting mixed market sentiment.


Dollar Swings Lower As Recession Risks Pervade; JPY Surges

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.</li>
<li>The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.</li>
<li>A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.</li>
</ul>


Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.
The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.
A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.


Asset Allocation Watch  – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>The latest Beige Book report further supports Fed’s rate cut proposition given more signals of economic moderation.</li><li>BI’s historic rate cut consistently reflects anticipatory moves in response to global economic downturn to mitigate the spillover effects.</li><li>While China’s Third Plenum yet to offer substantial reform. The PBOC unprecedented rate cut on the 1Y and 5Y LPR could risk IDR volatility</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The latest Beige Book report further supports Fed’s rate cut proposition given more signals of economic moderation.BI’s historic rate cut consistently reflects anticipatory moves in response to global economic downturn to mitigate the spillover effects.While China’s Third Plenum yet to offer substantial reform. The PBOC unprecedented rate cut on the 1Y and 5Y LPR could risk IDR volatilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The Monetary Easing Coercion

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

U.S. inflation fell below 3% for the first time in over three years. Despite mixed signals from the manufacturing sector, retail sales showed...

Mint Finance

Dollar Swings Lower As Recession Risks Pervade; JPY Surges

The past week saw unprecedented volatility across global markets, with forex markets shaken by BoJ's rate hike. FX options signal counterintuitive...

Mint Finance

Asset Allocation Watch – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September. The simple playbook is often...

Steno Research

Macro Strategy: The Monetary Easing Coercion

BI’s historic rate cut consistently reflects anticipatory moves in response to global economic downturn to mitigate the spillover effects.

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)