External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy.</li><li>The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0-0.1% from now on and will also abandon its YCC and ETF purchases, in line with the reports that emerged yesterday ahead of the decision.</li><li>This is the first rate hike in Japan in 17 years. BoJ Governor Ueda said it was important to keep policy settings accommodative, suggesting that there was little rush to add to rate hikes for now. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy.The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0-0.1% from now on and will also abandon its YCC and ETF purchases, in line with the reports that emerged yesterday ahead of the decision.This is the first rate hike in Japan in 17 years. BoJ Governor Ueda said it was important to keep policy settings accommodative, suggesting that there was little rush to add to rate hikes for now. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - JPY Slides After BoJ Rate Hike

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up to the resistance at 1,395 points (75-day EMA)/1,400 points, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points.</li><li>The index may be positively impacted by the BoJ potentially signaling an end to its negative policy interest rate.</li><li>However, the potential index gain is expected to be limited as investors are waiting for the FOMC meeting result tomorrow. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up to the resistance at 1,395 points (75-day EMA)/1,400 points, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points.The index may be positively impacted by the BoJ potentially signaling an end to its negative policy interest rate.However, the potential index gain is expected to be limited as investors are waiting for the FOMC meeting result tomorrow. 

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space.</li><li>Our portfolio remains tilted strongly towards cyclical / inflationary bets such as materials and crude.</li><li>For the whole portfolio click here: Steno Research Portfolio.</li></ul>

Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space.Our portfolio remains tilted strongly towards cyclical / inflationary bets such as materials and crude.For the whole portfolio click here: Steno Research Portfolio.

Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.</li><li>The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.</li><li>If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.</li></ul>

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.</li><li>The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.</li><li>This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.</li></ul>

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.

Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Daily - JPY Slides After BoJ Rate Hike

The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy. The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0...

Scotiabank

KTX Zoom - MARCH 19, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up to the resistance at 1,395 points (75-day EMA)/1,400 points, with the support at 1,378...

Krungthai XSpring

Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!

Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space. Our portfolio remains tilted...

Steno Research

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations...

Steno Research

Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment...

Steno Research

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