Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.</li><li>The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.</li><li>This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.</li></ul>

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment in green initiatives.The court ruled against the government’s plan to reallocate €60 billion in unused pandemic emergency funds to its Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), deeming this move unconstitutional.This decision came at a critical time when Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was already facing an economic slow down.

Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention or provide food for thought on topics of relevance that seem neglected by the economic consensus.</li><li>After the change in methodology to the CPI basket in 1983, interest rates aren’t reflected to the same extent as before in the inflation basket.</li><li>But that also means that Americans feel rising costs of living to a larger extent than the CPI basket reflects.</li></ul>

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention or provide food for thought on topics of relevance that seem neglected by the economic consensus.After the change in methodology to the CPI basket in 1983, interest rates aren’t reflected to the same extent as before in the inflation basket.But that also means that Americans feel rising costs of living to a larger extent than the CPI basket reflects.

Out of the Box: Cut Rates if You Want Lower Inflation, Powell

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the year</li><li>Labor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertainty</li><li>Options markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trend</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the yearLabor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertaintyOptions markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trendThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Policy Watch: The German ‘Debt Brake’ on EU Green Tech Ambitions

In November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court made a landmark ruling that had significant implications for the country’s budget and investment...

Steno Research

Out of the Box: Cut Rates if You Want Lower Inflation, Powell

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action...

Steno Research

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

Last week's key events included Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony and the non farm payrolls report, with a focus on the need for more data...

At Any Rate

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

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