Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.</li><li>The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.</li><li>The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Chair Powell set to deliver semiannual testimony in Congress, February employment data on Friday</li><li>ECB decision on Thursday with potential impact on US rates and currencies</li><li>Revision of rates forecast to reflect Fed easing expectations and QT process, potential for rates to decline if February data does not repeat January strength</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Chair Powell set to deliver semiannual testimony in Congress, February employment data on FridayECB decision on Thursday with potential impact on US rates and currenciesRevision of rates forecast to reflect Fed easing expectations and QT process, potential for rates to decline if February data does not repeat January strengthThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

<ul><li>Money trends were abysmal for most parts of 2022 and the early parts of 2023, but we are starting to see interesting trends arising in the global money growth with clear geographical divergences.</li><li>Japan, China and the Euro zone have reported January M1, M2 and M3 developments and while trends remain benign in JPY and CNY, the money trends in EUR are re-worsening.</li><li>A gap seems to be opening between USD and EUR money trends, which rhymes well with our strong thesis of a growing inflation gap between the US and the Euro zone.</li></ul>

Money trends were abysmal for most parts of 2022 and the early parts of 2023, but we are starting to see interesting trends arising in the global money growth with clear geographical divergences.Japan, China and the Euro zone have reported January M1, M2 and M3 developments and while trends remain benign in JPY and CNY, the money trends in EUR are re-worsening.A gap seems to be opening between USD and EUR money trends, which rhymes well with our strong thesis of a growing inflation gap between the US and the Euro zone.

Money Watch: Trillions of USDs Are Waiting to Be Unleashed

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Yesterday we got the full release of the February Ifo report from Germany.</li><li>We note that price expectations in services ex. real estate fell almost 10 percentage points.</li><li>One of our high conviction macro bets for this year is the major divergence between US and Euro inflation and looking at the below chart using employment data from Ifo and compensation plans from the NFIB Survey in the US certainly points in this direction.</li></ul>

Yesterday we got the full release of the February Ifo report from Germany.We note that price expectations in services ex. real estate fell almost 10 percentage points.One of our high conviction macro bets for this year is the major divergence between US and Euro inflation and looking at the below chart using employment data from Ifo and compensation plans from the NFIB Survey in the US certainly points in this direction.

Macro Nugget: Diverging US and Europe Inflation Outlook

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial. The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a...

Steno Research

Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)

Chair Powell will deliver testimony to Congress, February employment data will be released, the ECB will make a decision, and Mira Chandan will...

At Any Rate

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Money Watch: Trillions of USDs Are Waiting to Be Unleashed

Money trends were abysmal for most parts of 2022 and the early parts of 2023, but we are starting to see interesting trends arising in the global...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: Diverging US and Europe Inflation Outlook

Yesterday we got the full release of the February Ifo report from Germany. We note that price expectations in services ex. real estate fell almost...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)