Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).</li>
<li>To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).
To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.
Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.


Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Switzerland sparks the start of a global wave of monetary policy easing. And it’s only March!</li>
<li>Why are central banks already contemplating rate cuts when inflation levels are significantly above target, and the global economy is at full employment?</li>
<li>I explain why investors should pay more attention to the MOVE Index and less to the VIX Index. It comes down to the answer to the question above.</li>
</ul>


Switzerland sparks the start of a global wave of monetary policy easing. And it’s only March!
Why are central banks already contemplating rate cuts when inflation levels are significantly above target, and the global economy is at full employment?
I explain why investors should pay more attention to the MOVE Index and less to the VIX Index. It comes down to the answer to the question above.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Global Monetary Policy Easing Has Begun!

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up to the resistance at 1,395 points (75-day EMA)/1,400 points, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points.</li><li>The index may be positively impacted by the BoJ potentially signaling an end to its negative policy interest rate.</li><li>However, the potential index gain is expected to be limited as investors are waiting for the FOMC meeting result tomorrow. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up to the resistance at 1,395 points (75-day EMA)/1,400 points, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points.The index may be positively impacted by the BoJ potentially signaling an end to its negative policy interest rate.However, the potential index gain is expected to be limited as investors are waiting for the FOMC meeting result tomorrow. 

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space.</li><li>Our portfolio remains tilted strongly towards cyclical / inflationary bets such as materials and crude.</li><li>For the whole portfolio click here: Steno Research Portfolio.</li></ul>

Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space.Our portfolio remains tilted strongly towards cyclical / inflationary bets such as materials and crude.For the whole portfolio click here: Steno Research Portfolio.

Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.</li><li>The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.</li><li>If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.</li></ul>

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $RTY $IJH $MDY $VXF; Broadening Participation (NYSE Net New...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Global Monetary Policy Easing Has Begun!

Start your week in financial markets with last week's biggest charts and stories! Start ahead and read the Weekly Market Monitor!

Jeroen Blokland

KTX Zoom - MARCH 19, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up to the resistance at 1,395 points (75-day EMA)/1,400 points, with the support at 1,378...

Krungthai XSpring

Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!

Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space. Our portfolio remains tilted...

Steno Research

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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