In today’s briefing:
- MINIMAX-W: Pre-Connect Inclusion Update and Positioning
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep26: No Changes Likely; US$1.3bn One-Way; Announcement in Two Weeks
- MiniMax (100 HK): Stock Connect Buying Starts Today
- Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison
- Unitree Robotics IPO Preview
- SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look
- Tencent (700 HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (05 Aug 2026)
- Zhongji Innolight Tactical UPDATE After Planned US Import Ban
- Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK / 300308 CH): Monetising 100% Volatility Through Put Selling
- Pre-IPO Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing (A/H Listing) – The Turning Point Has Occurred
MINIMAX-W: Pre-Connect Inclusion Update and Positioning
- Connect inclusion. We expect MiniMax (100 HK) to enter southbound Stock Connect on 6 Aug 2026 after exchange announcements before the open.
- Southbound demand. We use Zhipu’s (2513 HK) post-inclusion southbound accumulation as the closest precedent for MiniMax.
- Revision, tokens and re-rating. Revenue upgrades are running ahead of share supply. OpenRouter data suggest a valuation gap vs Zhipu.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep26: No Changes Likely; US$1.3bn One-Way; Announcement in Two Weeks
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- We continue to expect no index changes for September 2026. However, we estimate there to be around US$1.3bn in one-way flows triggered by capping.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2026 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st August 2026.
MiniMax (100 HK): Stock Connect Buying Starts Today
- MiniMax (100 HK) listed on 9 January and was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in June.
- As a security with Weighted Voting Rights (WVR), MiniMax (100 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading on 6 August.
- The stock is trading 80% lower from its highs and there should be a lot of interest from mainland investors.
Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison
- SHEIN Global Holdings (SHEIN HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its Hong Kong listing.
- Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.
Unitree Robotics IPO Preview
- Unitree Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO on the STAR market of this Shanghai Stock Exchange this month.
- Unitree would become the first major producer of humanoid robots to be listed on the Chinese mainland.
- Target valuation is about 42 billion yuan (US$5.7 billion). Subscription date is 10 August. The company is looking to raise 4.2 billion yuan (US$618 million).
SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look
- SHEIN Global Holdings (SHEIN HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, is pre-marketing a HKEx IPO to raise US$3 billion.
- I previously discussed the IPO in SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case and SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and examine Shein’s potential valuation range. My analysis suggests a valuation range of US$33.3 billion to US$34.0 billion.
Tencent (700 HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (05 Aug 2026)
- Pivoting Capital from Buybacks to AI Infrastructure: Tencent is executing a tactical asset allocation shift. After deploying HKD 80.0 billion on share buybacks in 2025, the company is scaling back repurchases in 2026 to fund its doubling of generative AI and foundation model expenditures to over RMB 36.0 billion. This shift is enabled by robust domestic free cash flow (RMB 223.9 billion in 2025) and a fortress net cash balance of RMB 146.9 billion as of Q1 2026.
- The “Sell the Parent, Buy the Subsidiary” Divestment Strategy: Direct block sales (such as the recent $1.5 billion Kuaishou divestment in July 2026) are being prioritized over “distributions in specie” (historically used for JD.com and Meituan) to secure immediate liquidity for AI capex. At the same time, Tencent is reinvesting directly in high-growth AI subsidiaries—such as Kuaishou’s Kling AI—allowing it to maintain strategic ecosystem partnerships without carrying legacy, low-growth equity baggage.
- BU-Level Profitability and Margin Discipline: Performance incentives for business unit leaders have structurally evolved. While WeChat (WxG) remains isolated from short-term margin pressures to protect ecosystem health, the Cloud & Smart Industries Group (CSIG) was successfully rationalized under a strict “profitable-revenue” framework, converting it from a cash-drain to a RMB 5.0 billion adjusted operating profit in 2025 by cutting low-margin reseller contracts and shifting to proprietary SaaS/PaaS.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
Zhongji Innolight Tactical UPDATE After Planned US Import Ban
- On Wednesday REUTERS reported the Trump administration is drafting a ban on U.S. imports of new models of Chinese data center components.
- Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH) fell 7.27% on Wednesday, as export-dependent optical module makers could be severaly impacted by the ban. Some see this purely as a negotiation tactic from Trump.
- We recently pointed out downside risk for Zhongji Innolight, so let’s have a look to fresh, updated support and profit target models to evaluate the stock’s possible range.
Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK / 300308 CH): Monetising 100% Volatility Through Put Selling
- Zhongji InnoLight (300308 CH / 3308 HK) trades 31% below its all-time high, while the consensus price target implies upside of 35%.
- Historical periods with volatility above 100% have produced higher average and median subsequent one-month returns than lower-volatility regimes.
- Implied volatility above 100% is extreme by any standard, generating exceptionally rich option premiums that can be monetised through put selling, albeit with exposure to further share-price weakness.
Pre-IPO Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing (A/H Listing) – The Turning Point Has Occurred
- Dongshan’s core competitiveness lies in its technological R&D barriers. Dongshan has the ability to provide integrated comprehensive solutions, making it one of the few all-round suppliers among new energy customers.
- Affected by the price reduction of old models from major customers in 2024, Dongshan’s profit was under pressure. The improvement in 26Q1 results indicates that performance turning point has occurred.
- There is usually a 20%-40% A/H discount, but Hong Kong stock market shows high recognition for high-growth technology-based manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, we expect an A/H discount of 20-30% for Dongshan.
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